Spatial Inhomogeneity of Atmospheric CO_(2) Concentration and Its Uncertainty in CMIP6 Earth System Models  

作　　者：Chengjun XIE Tongwen WU Jie ZHANG Kalli FURTADO Yumeng ZHOU Yanwu ZHANG Fanghua WU Weihua JIE He ZHAO Mengzhe ZHENG 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,Beijing 100081,China [4]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Beijing 100081,China [5]Met Office Hadley Centre,Exeter,EX13PB,UK

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第11期2108-2126,共19页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42230608);the UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.

摘　　要：This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration.The multi-model ensemble mean(MME)can reasonably simulate the increasing trend of CO_(2) concentration from 1850 to 2014,compared with the observation data from the Scripps CO_(2) Program and CMIP6 prescribed data,and improves upon the CMIP5 MME CO_(2) concentration(which is overestimated after 1950).The growth rate of CO_(2) concentration in the northern hemisphere(NH)is higher than that in the southern hemisphere(SH),with the highest growth rate in the mid-latitudes of the NH.The MME can also reasonably simulate the seasonal amplitude of CO_(2) concentration,which is larger in the NH than in the SH and grows in amplitude after the 1950s(especially in the NH).Although the results of the MME are reasonable,there is a large spread among ESMs,and the difference between the ESMs increases with time.The MME results show that regions with relatively large CO_(2) concentrations(such as northern Russia,eastern China,Southeast Asia,the eastern United States,northern South America,and southern Africa)have greater seasonal variability and also exhibit a larger inter-model spread.Compared with CMIP5,the CMIP6 MME simulates an average spatial distribution of CO_(2) concentration that is much closer to the site observations,but the CMIP6-inter-model spread is larger.The inter-model differences of the annual means and seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration are both attributed to the differences in natural sources and sinks of CO_(2) between the simulations.

关 键 词：CMIP6 Earth System Models the simulation of atmospheric CO_(2)concentration spatial inhomogeneity UNCERTAINTY 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]