Record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged Temperature(CMST) Dataset  

作　　者：Zichen LI Qingxiang LI Tianyi CHEN 

机构地区：[1]School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disasters,SUN Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China [2]Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China [3]Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering(Guangdong Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第2期369-376,共8页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975105 and 42375022)。

摘　　要：According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.

关 键 词：CMST2.0 global mean surface temperature record-breaking temperature El Ni?o 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]