The Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its Key Region in Winter in CMIP6 Model Simulations  

作　　者：Liang ZHAO Yunwen LIU Yihui DING Qingquan LI Wei DONG Xinyong SHEN Wei CHENG Haoxin YAO Ziniu XIAO 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [3]Neijiang Meteorological Bureau,Neijiang 641000,China [4]China Meteorological Administration,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China [5]Key Laboratory of Geoscience Big Data and Deep Resource of Zhejiang Province,School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China [6]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China [7]Beijing Institute of the Applied Meteorology,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第12期2138-2153,I0002-I0006,共21页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41790471,42075040,and U1902209);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100304);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606203,2019YFC1510400).

摘　　要：An enhanced Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia(WACE)pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern Hemisphere.However,divergent results between model and observational studies of the WACE still remain.This study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980-2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the models.The results show that the multimodel ensemble(MME)can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single models.Models that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well,especially the latter,usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern well.This mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea-Kara seas(BKS)region.Further analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking(UB),which can transport heat to the BKS region,causing the warm Arctic,and strengthen the westerly trough downstream,cooling central Eurasia.Therefore,simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.

关 键 词：warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern Arctic amplification CMIP6 simulation evaluation extreme climate blocking highs 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]