Influence of Arctic Sea-ice Concentration on Extended-range Forecasting of Cold Events in East Asia  

作　　者：Chunxiang LI Guokun DAI Mu MU Zhe HAN Xueying MA Zhina JIANG Jiayu ZHENG Mengbin ZHU 

机构地区：[1]CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China [3]Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System,Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute,Zhuhai 518057,China [4]CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology,Shanghai 200438,China [5]Yantai Vocational College,Yantai 264043,China [6]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [7]State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510301,China [8]Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第12期2224-2241,共18页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,41790475,42175051,and 42005046);the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;Grant No.LTO2109);the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2021A1515011868).

摘　　要：Utilizing the Community Atmosphere Model,version 4,the influence of Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC)on the extended-range prediction of three simulated cold events(CEs)in East Asia is investigated.Numerical results show that the Arctic SIC is crucial for the extended-range prediction of CEs in East Asia.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is adopted to identify the optimal Arctic SIC perturbations with the largest influence on CE prediction on the extended-range time scale.It shows that the optimal SIC perturbations are more inclined to weaken the CEs and cause large prediction errors in the fourth pentad,as compared with random SIC perturbations under the same constraint.Further diagnosis reveals that the optimal SIC perturbations first modulate the local temperature through the diabatic process,and then influence the remote temperature by horizontal advection and vertical convection terms.Consequently,the optimal SIC perturbations trigger a warming center in East Asia through the propagation of Rossby wave trains,leading to the largest prediction uncertainty of the CEs in the fourth pentad.These results may provide scientific support for targeted observation of Arctic SIC to improve the extended-range CE prediction skill.

关 键 词：cold event Arctic sea-ice concentration extended-range prediction 

分 类 号：P731.32[天文地球—海洋科学]