基于LOGISTIC的海南热带雨林国家公园公路沿线地质灾害敏感性评价  

Geohazard Susceptibility Evaluation Along the Road in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park Based on Logistic Regression Model

作　　者：李信 薛桂澄 柳长柱[1,2] 马波 杨永鹏[1,2] 杨峰 王晓林 LI Xin;XUE Gui-Cheng;LIU Chang-Zhu;Ma Bo;YANG Yong-Peng;YANG Feng;WANG Xiao-Lin(Hainan Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Geology Resources and Environment,Haikou 5702062,Hainan,China;Hainan Geological Survey Institute,Haikou 570206,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省海洋地质资源与环境重点实验室,海南海口570206 [2]海南省地质调查院,海南海口570206

出　　处：《华南地质》2023年第4期694-703,共10页South China Geology

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金(编号:421RC664);海南省海洋地质资源与环境重点实验室重点课题(22-HNHYDZZYHJKF020)。

摘　　要：海南热带雨林国家公园公路沿线地质灾害频发,开展地质灾害敏感性研究对该区防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。本文以尖峰岭公园公路沿线为例,选择断裂、坡度、坡向、水系、公路、降雨量作为敏感性评价指标,并对各指标因子进行定量研究,然后依托GIS平台采用确定系数和确定性系数逻辑回归两种模型对尖峰岭公园公路沿线进行了敏感性评价。研究结果表明:降雨、坡度、公路缓冲距离为尖峰岭公园公路沿线地质灾害发育的主控因素;高易发区主要位于公路沿线地质灾害较发育的地段,极低和低易发区位于人迹罕至的高海拔地区;通过模型敏感性检验,显示CF模型和CFLR模型的AUC值分别为0.785、0.808,表明两种评价模型具有较好的可靠性和客观性,确定性系数逻辑回归模型(CFLR)相比于单一的确定系数模型(CF)具有更高的准确率。本研究将为海南热带雨林国家公园地质灾害评价以及防灾减灾提供科学依据。Due to the frequent geohazards along the along the road of tropical rainforest park,it is of great significance to carry out the research on the vulnerability of geological hazards for disaster prevention and reduction.Taking the road in Jianfengling Park as an example,six factors including fault,slope,slope direction,water system,road and rainfall were selected as susceptibility evaluation indexes,and the influencing factors of themin the study area were quantitatively analyzed.Based on GIS platform,the sensitivity evaluation was carried out by using two models of certainty coefficient and certainty coefficient logistic regression.The results show that rainfall,slope and distance of road are main controlling factors affecting the development of geological hazards.The high-prone areas are mainly located along the road with relatively developed geological hazards,and the very low and low-prone areas are located in the high-altitude areas with rare human settlement.The AUC values of CF model and CFLR model are 0.785 and 0.808 respectively,showing that both evaluation models are great reliable and objective.The value from certainty factor compelling logistic regression model(CFLR)has higher accuracy than that of the single certainty factor model(CF).The research will provide scientific basis for geological hazard assessment and disaster prevention and reduction in the study area.

关 键 词：地质灾害 影响因素 敏感性 确定性系数 逻辑回归 海南热带雨林国家公园 

分 类 号：P642.21[天文地球—工程地质学]