县域尺度下河北省棉花全要素生产率时空演变特征及影响因素  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Total Factor Productivity of Cotton in Hebei Province at County Scale

作　　者：刘佳[1] 卢秀茹[1] LIU Jia;LU Xiuru(School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,Hebei)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第6期116-126,共11页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)

基　　金：河北省农业厅项目:“棉花产业经济与发展研究”(编号:HBCT2018040301);河北省科技厅项目:“河北省太行山区生态农业高质量发展路径与机制创新研究”(编号:20557667D);河北省教育厅项目:“生态农业引领乡村振兴理论、机理与实现路径研究——以河北省太行山区为例”(编号:KY2021120)。

摘　　要：我国棉花播种面积多年来持续萎缩,河北省作为新疆棉区的重要补充,提升其棉花全要素生产率对保障我国棉花供给安全不可或缺。基于2015—2020年河北省88个植棉县面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算河北省县域棉花全要素生产率,分析其时空分布特征,基于空间相关性检验,运用空间杜宾模型实证分析棉花全要素生产率影响因素。结果表明:技术效率是推动河北省县域棉花全要素生产率提升的主要因素,技术进步不足限制了棉花全要素生产率增长;棉花全要素生产率具有明显的空间相关性;棉花全要素生产率影响因素具有空间溢出效应。因此,应着力提升河北省棉花技术创新能力,从产业集聚和空间溢出效应方面入手,发挥优势棉区的辐射带动作用。China's cotton sowing area has continued to shrink over the years,Hebei Province,as an important complement to the Xinjiang cotton producing areas,to enhance its cotton total factor productivity is indispensable to ensure the security of China's cotton supply.Based on the panel data of 88 cotton planting counties in Hebei Province from 2015 to 2020,this paper used the DEA-Malmquist index method to estimate the total factor productivity of cotton in counties of Hebei Province,and analyzed its spatio-temporal distribution characteristics.Additionally,it empirically analyzed some influencing factors of cotton total factor productivity employing spatial correlation tests and the Spatial Dubin Model.The results showed that technical efficiency was the main factor for the improvement of cotton total factor productivity in Hebei Province,while the lack of technical progress limited the growth of cotton total factor productivity.Moreover,the total factor productivity of cotton has obvious spatial correlation.Cotton planting scale and fertilizer input have negative effects on it.The machine-sown level has a positive spatial spillover effect,while the development level of agricultural producer services and machine-cultivated level has a negative spatial spillover effect.Therefore,the paper suggests focusing on improving the technologically innovative capability of cotton production in Hebei Province,and from the perspective of industry agglomeration and spillover effect giving play to the radiation-driven role of dominant cotton areas.

关 键 词：棉花 全要素生产率 时空演变 影响因素 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]