地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0对北太平洋年代际气候变化的模拟评估  

An assessment of North Pacific interdecadal climate change simulations using the FIO-ESM v2.0

作　　者：韦销蔚 董昌明 夏长水 乔方利 Wei Xiaowei;Dong Changming;Xia Changshui;Qiao Fangi(Meteorological Information Center,Meteorological Administration of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China;School of Marine Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 266061,China;First Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象局气象信息中心,广西南宁530022 [2]南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院,江苏南京210044 [3]自然资源部第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋学报》2023年第9期25-44,共20页

基　　金：自然资源部海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室开放基金(2020-ZD-02);国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604100)。

摘　　要：数值模拟方法在研究长时间的气候变化上扮演着重要角色。一直以来,数值模式模拟年代际气候变化如太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换存在巨大挑战。本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model Version 2,FIO-ESM v2.0)145年(1870–2014年)历史气候模拟试验结果,结合再分析资料和另外两个地球系统模式结果,分析评估了该模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟能力。研究发现,FIO-ESM v2.0能够再现历史时期PDO的空间模态分布特征,其PDO指数具有10~30年的周期变化特征,同时于1960年以后能刻画出与再分析数据结果相近的PDO位相转变特征。研究表明,FIO-ESM v2.0能够较为准确地模拟出PDO的位相转变特征。另外,本文还评估了该模式对大气环流模态的模拟能力及其与PDO之间的关系,以及该模式模拟PDO的可能机制。该模式的PDO与大气环流的阿留申低压模态相关。进一步的分析表明,平流作用和热通量是关键年代际海域海温异常振幅的主要因素,而罗斯贝波西传时间则可能是影响PDO位相转变的关键因素。Numerical simulation play an important role in studying long-term climate change.For a long time,it has meted great challenges in characterizing the phase transitions of interdecadal climate changes like Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).This study evaluates 145-year(1870–2014)historical PDO simulation results produced by the First Institute of Oceanography’s Earth System Model Version 2(FIO-ESM v2.0)of Ministry of Natural Resources,in a comparison with reanalysis datasets and two other earth system model results.Results indicate that the FIO-ESM v2.0 can recreate the spatial modal distribution characteristics of the PDO from the historical period.The mod-el’s PDO index has a period of 10 to 30 years and can describe the phase transition characteristics that resembles reanalysis datasets after 1960.Research shows that the FIO-ESM v2.0 can describe the phase transition features of PDO well.In addition,the model performance to simulate atmospheric circulation modes and relationship with PDO,as well as the possible mechanism for the model to simulate PDO are also discussed.The PDO of the model is related to the Aleutian Mode of atmospheric circulation.Further analysis shows that advection and heat flux are the main factors affecting the amplitude of SST anomalies in key decadal area,and the Rossby wave westward time may be the key factor affecting the phase transition of PDO.

关 键 词：FIO-ESM v2.0 太平洋年代际震荡 海气相互作用 

分 类 号：P731.11[天文地球—海洋科学] P722