基于Mann-Kendall法的祖厉河流域水沙特征及趋势分析  

Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Water and Sediment in Zuli River Basin Based on the Mann-Kendall Method

作　　者：张正红 张富[2] 雍东鹤[1] 吴天珍 余文娟 ZHANG Zhenghong;ZHANG Fu;YONG Donghe;WU Tianzhen;YU Wenjuan(Gansu Agricultural Vocational and Technical College,Lanzhou 730010,China;College of Forestry,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业职业技术学院,甘肃兰州730010 [2]甘肃农业大学林学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2023年第6期58-63,共6页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：2020年甘肃省教育厅高校创新能力提升项目(2020B-323)。

摘　　要：为了探究半干旱黄土区水沙特征及变化趋势,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,对祖厉河流域2001—2016年的降水量、径流量与输沙量进行了分析研究。结果表明:研究期内年降水量呈不明显增加趋势,年变化幅度为1.83 mm/a,汛期降水量呈减少趋势,年变化幅度为-2.01 mm/a;年径流量与汛期径流量变化曲线基本一致,总体都呈显著波动下降趋势(P<0.05),径流量年变化幅度为-3.85×10^(6) m^(3)/a,汛期径流量年变化幅度为-2.729×10^(6) m^(3)/a,二者突变时间均在2013年左右,突变以后UF k值超过95%的信度线(α=0.05),呈现急剧减少趋势;输沙量和径流量呈现相似的显著减少趋势,年输沙量与汛期输沙量变化曲线基本一致,年输沙量和汛期输沙量年变化幅度均为-1.06×10^(6) t/a,二者突变开始时间均在2011—2012年之间,2014年以后UF k值超过95%的信度线(α=0.05),呈急剧减少趋势。In order to explore the characteristics and variation trend of water and sediment in semi-arid loess region,based on Mann-Kendall non-parametric test,the change trends and mutabilities of precipitation,runoff and sediment in Zuli River basin from 2001 to 2016 were analyzed.The results showed that the annual precipitation did not increase significantly during the study period,the annual variation was 1.83 mm/a,precipitation in flood period showed a decreasing trend,the annual variation was-2.01 mm/a.The curves of annual runoff and flood period runoff presented a trend that dropped significantly(P<0.05),which were basically consistent.The annual variation of annual runoff and flood period runoff were-3.85×10^(6) m^(3)/a and-2.729×10^(6) m^(3)/a,respectively.The mutation time of them was around 2013,and the value of UF k exceeded the 95%reliability line(α=0.05),then it showed a sharp decrease trend.A similar trend of significant reduction was presented between the discharge of sediment and runoff,the variation curves of annual sediment and sediment in flood period were basically consistent,the variation of them are both 1.06×10^(6) t/a,both of mutation time appeared between 2011 and 2012,the value of UF k exceeded the 95%reliability line(α=0.05)after 2014,which showed a sharp decline trend.

关 键 词：祖厉河流域 Mann-Kendall检验法 水沙特征 变化趋势 

分 类 号：Q14[生物学—生态学]