安徽省干旱灾害风险区划研究  

Research on drought disaster risk zoning in Anhui Province

作　　者：李征 蒋尚明[1,2] 沈瑞 曹秀清[1,2] 金菊良 LI Zheng;JIANG Shangming;SHEN Rui;CAO Xiuqing;JIN Juliang(Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Hefei 230088,China;Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources,Bengbu 233000,China;School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽合肥230088 [2]水利水资源安徽省重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000 [3]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《江淮水利科技》2023年第6期30-35,I0001,I0002,共8页Jianghuai Water Resources Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271037,U2240223);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03);水利部2022年度水利青年拔尖人才资助项目;安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院青年科技创新计划(KY202203)。

摘　　要：为提出区域旱灾风险应对措施提供依据,进一步推动干旱灾害防治区划研究,从风险管理角度定量评估和区划干旱灾害风险,以县级行政区为区划单元计算农业干旱灾害和因旱人饮困难风险度,并采用等分间距法开展农业干旱和因旱人饮困难风险区划,最后根据最不利原则确定干旱灾害综合风险区划。结果表明:安徽省农业干旱灾害高风险区主要集中在淮北平原北部地区和江淮分水岭地区;因旱人饮困难高风险区位于皖西皖南山区;城镇干旱灾害无高风险区;6个县级行政区干旱灾害综合为高风险区。风险区划成果有助于掌握安徽省干旱灾害风险分布情况,可为干旱灾害风险管理提供科学依据和技术支撑。To provide a basis for proposing measures to cope with regional drought risks and to further promote the research on the zoning of drought prevention and control areas,a quantitative assessment of drought risk and zoning of drought disasters are conducted from the perspective of risk management.The risk assessment is carried out at the county level,with agricultural drought disasters and the difficulty of drinking water due to drought calculated as risk indicators.The risk zoning for agricultural drought and the difficulty of drinking water due to drought is conducted using an equal interval method.Finally,based on the principle of the worst-case scenario,a comprehensive risk zoning of drought disasters is determined.The results showed that the high-risk areas of agricultural drought disaster in Anhui Province were mainly concentrated in Funan county in the northern area of Huaibei Plain and the Jianghuai Watershed erea Mingguang city,Dingyuan county and Jingde county.The high-risk ereas for drought-related drinking difficulties were located in Yuexi county,Shitai county and Jingde county in the mountainous areas of western Anhui Province and southern Anhui Province.There were no high-risk zones for drought disasters in cities and towns;six county-level administrative districts(Funan county,Mingguang city,Dingyuan county,Jingde county,Yakeshi county and Shitai county)were at high risk.The drought disaster is synthesized as a high-risk area.The results of risk zoning help to grasp the distribution of drought disaster risk in Anhui Province,and could provide scientific basis and technical support for drought disaster risk management.

关 键 词：干旱灾害 风险区划 分布特征 安徽省 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程]