一次梅雨锋特大暴雨过程的预报误差分析  

Analysis of forecast error of a Meiyu front torrential rain process

作　　者：肖雯 凌婷 Xiao Wen;Ling Ting(Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center,Nanchang 330096)

机构地区：[1]江西省气象服务中心,南昌330096

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2023年第4期91-94,共4页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：2019年江西省预报员专项“2018台风‘山竹’作用下一次远距离飑线特征及机理分析”(193020100190)资助。

摘　　要：文章利用常规气象观测资料、业务数值预报模式和FNL再分析资料等,从大气环流背景、水汽条件、动力场和热力场特征等多个方面分析了2020-07-09发生在江西中部的一次梅雨锋特大暴雨过程,给出了数值模式预报在此次暴雨过程中预报偏差较大的可能原因,指出预报中应重点关注全球模式调整趋势及中尺度区域模式中对流区域的预报,为天气预报员对此类特大暴雨过程的预报和订正提供了科学参考。Based on conventional meteorological observation data,operational numerical prediction model and FNL reanalysis data,this paper analyzes a Meiyu front rainstorm process in central Jiangxi Province on July 9,2020 from the aspects of atmospheric circulation background,water vapor conditions,dynamic field and thermal field characteristics.The possible reasons for the large deviation of numerical model forecast in this rainstorm process are given.It is pointed out that the forecast should focus on the adjustment trend of the global model and the forecast of the convective region in the mesoscale regional model,which provides a scientific reference for the forecasters to forecast and correct this kind of heavy rain process.

关 键 词：梅雨锋 特大暴雨 预报偏差 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]