基于多重影响因素的天然气需求预测研究以西南油气田分公司为例  

Natural Gas Demand Prediction Based on Multiple Influencing Factors——An Empirical Analysis of the Data of Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company

作　　者：贺志明[1] 袁灿 罗学渊 任雨涵 罗小利 HE Zhiming;YUAN Chan;LUO Xueyuan;REN Yuhan;LUO Xiaoli(PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company,Natural Gas Economics Research InstituteChengdu Sichuan,610041,China;PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company,Sales Department,Chengdu Sichuan,610041,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田分公司天然气经济研究所,四川成都610041 [2]中国石油西南油气田分公司营销部,四川成都610041

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第6期1-12,共12页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：天然气需求因素效应分析对于企业预判市场需求和能源市场稳定有着重要作用。基于中国石油西南油气田分公司的天然气营销数据,运用多因素回归模型分析各影响因素的作用效果与行业异质性,结果发现:各影响因素的作用效果存在总体差异性和行业异质性;影响天然气需求的关键性因素是民用天然气市场价格、城市燃气使用价格与供给价格价差、天然气供给价格、工业天然气市场价格等。为了推动我国能源行业健康运行,能源企业应构建基于复杂情景的智慧营销管理策略,进一步强化能源风险应对能力。The effect analysis of natural gas demand factors plays an important role in predicting market demand and energy market stability at the enterprise level.Based on the natural gas marketing data of Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company,this paper analyzes the effect of various influencing factors and the heterogeneity of the industry using a multi-factor regression model.The results show that there are overall differences and industry heterogeneity in the effects of various influencing factors.When studying and judging the key factors affecting demand,enterprises should focus on factors like the market price of civil natural gas,the price difference between prices of urban gas use and supply,natural gas supply price,market price of industrial natural gas.Energy enterprises should build intelligent marketing management strategies based on complex scenarios,strengthen the prediction and risk response capabilities,and promote the high-quality development,so as to promote the healthy operation of China’s energy industry,and serve the top-level design of national energy security.

关 键 词：天然气需求 能源风险 能源安全 营销策略 多因素回归模型 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]