新能源项目运营技术经济分析及其对发展的影响  

Investigate on the impact factors of operational capability for new energy projects

作　　者：夏晖 张敏[1] 刘志强[2] 张国珍[1] 王博 李云凝 XIA Hui;ZHANG Min;LIU Zhiqiang;ZHANG Guozhen;WANG Bo;LI Yunning(China Longyuan Power Group Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100032,China;China Electricity Council,Beijing 100761,China)

机构地区：[1]龙源电力集团股份有限公司,北京市1000032 [2]中国电力企业联合会,北京市100761

出　　处：《电力科技与环保》2023年第6期543-552,共10页Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection

基　　金：龙源电力集团股份有限公司科技项目(ZDLGH100201000014)。

摘　　要：为分析电价、税收、消纳、电力市场参与、成本控制、技术水平等内外部因素对新能源项目运营能力的影响,本文通过典型项目,对影响运营水平的内外部因素开展了定量分析,结果显示陆上风电电价每下降0.01元/(kW·h),项目资本金内部收益率(internal rate of return,IRR)平均下降0.736个百分点;集中式光伏市场化电量及电价波动由20%升至50%,IRR由9.07%降至约1%;平均绿电交易比例每增加20个百分点,光伏项目IRR增加0.26个百分点,风电项目IRR增加0.5个百分点;光伏项目初始投资成本每减少0.1元/W、IRR提高约0.29个百分点,风电项目单位投资成本每增加500元/kW、IRR平均降低1.85个百分点。新能源企业需系统加强参与市场运营能力建设,形成以营收为核心的电力市场参与策略,同时持续加大科技创新水平,以集约化管理为手段提升新能源项目竞争力。The operational capacity of new energy projects is affected by internal and external factors such as electricity prices,taxes,consumption,participation in the electricity market,cost control,and technical level.The results show that for every 0.01 RMB/kWh decrease in onshore wind power price,the IRR of project capital decreases by 0.736 percentage points on average.The IRR of centralized PV project drops from 9.07% to about 1% as the market-based electricity and electricity price fluctuations increase from 20% to 50%.For every 20 percentage points increase in the average green power transaction ratio,the IRR of PV projects increases by 0.26 percentage points,the IRR of wind power projects increases by 0.5 percentage points.The IRR of PV projects increases by about 0.29 percentage points for every 0.1 RMB/W decrease in the initial investment cost of the projects,and the IRR of wind power projects decreases by 1.85 percentage points for every 500 RMB/kW increase in the unit investment cost of the projects.New energy enterprises need to systematically strengthen the ability to participate in market operations,form a revenue as the core of the power market participation strategy,and continue to increase the level of scientific and technological innovation,and enhance the competitiveness of new energy projects by means of intensive management.

关 键 词：新能源 技术 经济 运营 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]