太原市电力负荷特征及其与夏季气象要素的相关性分析  

Power Load Characteristics and Its Correlation with Summer Meteorological Elements in Taiyuan City

作　　者：师莉红 岳江 于小红 贺洁颖 SHI Lihong;YUE Jiang;YU Xiaohong;HE Jieying(Shanxi Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Taiyuan 030002,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省气象科学研究所,太原030002

出　　处：《河南科学》2023年第12期1824-1831,共8页Henan Science

基　　金：山西省气象局重点项目(SXKZDQH20217102);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023P022)。

摘　　要：利用太原市2016—2020年逐日电力负荷资料及太原、小店和尖草坪3个国家气象站的逐日气温和相对湿度资料,分析太原市电力负荷变化特征.采用最小二乘法分离气象电力负荷,对夏季电力负荷与气象要素的相关性进行分析,研究1℃增温效应变化规律,并且分别采用多元线性回归和逐步回归方法设置两种方案,构建夏季气象电力负荷预报模型.研究结果表明:太原市日最大电力负荷逐年变化呈现冬季第一峰值和夏季第二峰值的双峰型模式;周变化特征为周一开始上升,周四达最高值,随后明显下降,周日达最小值;当日平均气温≥19℃时,增温效应随着气温的升高逐渐显著,26℃时达最高值,随后减少;构建预报模型的模拟效果总体上采用逐步回归方案2为最优.Based on the daily power load data of Taiyuan City from 2016 to 2020 and the daily temperature and relative humidity data of Taiyuan,Xiaodian and Jiancaoping National meteorological Station,the variation characteristics of the power load in Taiyuan City were analyzed.The least square method was used to separate the meteorological power load,and the correlation between the summer power load and meteorological elements was analyzed.The change rule of 1℃warming effect was studied.Linear regression method and stepwise regression method were adopted respectively,for constructing the summer meteorological power load forecast model.The results show that the daily maximum power load in Taiyuan presents a bimodal pattern with the first peak in winter and the second peak in summer.The weekly variation is characterized by an increase on Monday,the highest value in a week on Thursday,then a significant decline,and the lowest value on Sunday.When the average temperature of the day was greater than or equal to 19℃,the warming effect was gradually significant with the increase of air temperature,reached the highest value at 26℃,and then decreased.In general,the simulation effect of the constructed prediction model is optimized by using stepwise regression scheme 2.

关 键 词：电力负荷 气象要素 相关性分析 1℃增温效应 负荷预报 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]