基于DEMATEL-ANP+Z-numbers方法的核安全文化评价研究  

Research on Nuclear Safety Culture Evaluation based on DEMATEL-ANP+Z-numbers Method

作　　者：李鹏程 许倩 王烨 LI Pengcheng;XU Qian;WANG Ye(University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《南华大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期1-13,共13页Journal of University of South China(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“核电厂数字化主控室运行班组的情景意识可靠性研究”资助(编号:51674145);湖南省自然科学基金项目“数字化核电厂运行班组的情景意识水平测度与建模研究”资助(编号:2017JJ2222);湖南省自然科学基金项目“核电厂数字化主控室运行班组决策可靠性研究”资助(编号:2021JJ30583);湖南省科学技术厅科普专题项目“核安全与核应急重大科技成果科普行动研究”资助(编号:2020ZK4031);湖南省哲学社会科学一般项目“核电厂人因失误预测与精准防控研究”资助(编号:21YBA104);湖南省社会科学评审成果委员会一般项目“核电厂组织脆弱性的形成机理和评价研究”资助(编号:XSP20YBC144)。

摘　　要：核安全文化是影响核电安全运行的关键要素之一。为了更加精准识别核电厂安全文化存在的弱点和定量评估核安全文化水平,文章首先基于安全文化冰山模型和文献分析,从价值观、行为、系统和环境四个方面建立核安全文化评价指标体系;然后,基于DEMATEL-ANP+Z-numbers方法构建了核安全文化评估方法,考虑到指标体系可能存在相互影响,因此运用DEMATEL-ANP方法确定各级指标的权重,考虑到专家评估的主观性、模糊性和不确定性,运用Z-numbers模糊综合评估方法进行综合评价,使评估结果更为精准;最后,以某核电厂为实例进行应用分析。结果显示,该核电厂安全文化评估总得分为0.671,处于“较高”水平,并识别存在的主要弱点,为提升核安全文化水平提供理论支持。Nuclear safety culture is one of the key elements affecting the safe operation of nuclear power.In order to more accurately identify the weaknesses of nuclear power plant safety culture and quantitatively evaluate the level of nuclear safety culture,this paper first establishes a nuclear safety culture evaluation index system from four aspects:values,behaviors,systems and environment based on the safety culture iceberg model and literature analysis.Then,a nuclear safety culture assessment method based on DEMATEL-ANP+Z-numbers method is constructed,considering that the index system may have mutual influence,so the DEMATEL-ANP method is used to determine the weight of indicators at all levels,considering the subjectivity,ambiguity and uncertainty of expert assessment,the Z-numbers fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is used to conduct comprehensive evaluation to make the assessment results more accurate.Finally,taking a nuclear power plant as an example,the application analysis results show that the total score of the safety culture assessment of the nuclear power plant is 0.671,which is at a“high”level,and the main weaknesses are identified,which provides theoretical support for improving the level of nuclear safety culture.

关 键 词：核安全文化评价 DEMATEL-ANP方法 Z-numbers 网络层次分析法 

分 类 号：F426.23[经济管理—产业经济]