返贫识别与成因探究——基于Triple-Hurdle模型的分析  

The Identification and Cause of Poverty Returning:An Analysis Based on the Triple-Hurdle Model

作　　者：孟婷 Meng Ting

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,250100

出　　处：《南方经济》2023年第12期19-36,共18页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“相对贫困的财税治理研究”(72073081);国家社会科学基金重大项目“解决相对贫困的扶志扶智长效机制研究”(20&ZD169)的资助。

摘　　要：在后扶贫时代,如何识别出面临潜在返贫风险的群体并对返贫现象背后的成因进行深入探索、系统梳理是巩固脱贫攻坚成果的重要环节。文章首先从定性层面厘清了返贫的内外部成因及作用机理,在此之中,内部因素又可划分为能力缺失型和思想观念型两大类。借助2014—2018年CFPS数据,聚焦相对贫困问题,于实证层面拓展了返贫的内涵,在分阶段识别返贫对象的基础上,首次引入Trible-Hurdle模型剖析了影响贫困家庭脱贫、返贫及其返贫程度的重要因素,并进一步考察了以自然灾害与受教育水平为代表的外部、内部因素对返贫现象产生的互动效应。研究表明:影响贫困家庭能否实现脱贫、进而是否会遭遇返贫以及返贫程度的因素具有异质性;整体而言,内部因素对贫困家庭脱贫、返贫的影响大于外部因素,在内部因素中,能力缺失型指标相较于思想观念型指标表现出了更明显的作用;自然灾害的冲击除了会直接影响家庭经济状况外,还会抑制家庭成员受教育水平的提升从而对收入产生间接的影响,由此揭示返贫的内外部成因间存在的互动机制。鉴于以上结论,文章认为应当持续加大基本公共服务的投入力度,优化基本公共服务支出结构,重点保障教育“扶智”政策的落实,这将有助于巩固已有的脱贫攻坚成果,扎实推动全体人民共同富裕。In the post-poverty alleviation era,how to identify groups facing the potential risk of poverty returning and conduct in-depth exploration and systematic review of the causes behind the phenomenon is an important link to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation.At first,this paper clarifies the internal and external causes and mechanisms of poverty returning from the qualitative level,among which the internal factors can be divided into two categories:ability loss type and ideological concept type.Then,with the help of CFPS data from 2014 to 2018,we focus on relative poverty and expand the connotation of poverty returning at the empirical level.Based on identifying the object of poverty returning by stages,we introduce the Trible-Hurdle model for the first time to analyze the important factors affecting poverty alleviation,poverty returning and the degree of poverty returning of a poor household.The interactive effects of external and internal factors,such as natural disasters and education level,on the phenomenon of poverty returning are further investigated.The results show that the factors affecting whether poor families can achieve poverty alleviation,and then whether they will experience poverty returning and the degree of poverty returning are heterogeneous;On the whole,the internal factors have greater impact on poverty alleviation and poverty returning than the external factors.Among the internal factors,the index of lack of ability plays a more obvious role than the index of ideology.In addition to directly affecting family economic status,the impact of natural disasters will also inhibit the improvement of family members'education level,which will have an indirect impact on income,which also reveals the interaction mechanism between internal and external causes of poverty returning.In view of the above conclusions,the article believes that we should continue to increase the investment in basic public services,while optimizing the expenditure structure of basic public services,focusing on ensu

关 键 词：返贫 相对贫困 成因探究 Trible-Hurdle 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]