低碳背景下快捷货物各运输方式间临界运距研究  

Critical Transportation Distance Analysis for Express Goods Transportation Modes Considering Low Carbon Emissions

作　　者：孙宗胜 帅斌[1,2,3] 许旻昊 SUN Zong-sheng;SHUAI Bin;XU Min-hao(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,成都611756 [3]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都611756

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2023年第6期11-21,共11页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173177)。

摘　　要：快捷货物运输需求的增加带来碳排放的激增,运输结构调整和技术进步是交通运输领域碳减排的主要方式。为分析快捷货物各运输方式间的竞争关系及临界运距,基于Logit模型构建包含经济性、时效性、稳定性、安全性、便捷性及绿色性等服务属性的市场分担率模型,基于分担率模型构建各运输方式间临界运距-高铁时速关系模型,并通过实例分析验证模型。实例结果表明:250 km·h^(-1)时速下,高铁快运的绝对优势运距范围为700~1500 km,优势运输时间为2.8~6.0 h,考虑碳排放因素时,600 km及以上运距均为高铁快运的绝对优势运距区间,优势运输时间为2.4 h及以上;碳排放权重系数每增加0.1,高铁较公路的绝对优势运距区间左边界会扩大100 km;200,250,300,350 km·h^(-1)这4种时速下,250 km·h^(-1)的公路-高铁临界运距提升率最大,较200 km·h^(-1)提升50%;当航空快运碳排放因子降低1/2时,其优势运距范围左边界会扩展23%。The increasing demand of express goods transportation has also brought a surge in carbon emissions.Adjustment of transportation structure and technological progress are the main approaches to reduce carbon emissions in the field of transportation.This paper proposes a market share rate model based on the Logit model,which includes service attributes such as economy,timeliness,stability,safety,convenience and environmental sustainability.The purpose is to analyze the competitive relationships and transportation distance among the array of express goods transportation modes.Based on the share rate model,the interaction relationship between the critical transportation distance and the speed changes of high-speed railway is analyzed,and the feasibility of the model is verified by examples.The results indicate that the absolute advantage of high-speed railway express transportation at 250 km·h^(-1)is 700 km to 1500 km,and the advantageous transportation time is 2.8 hours to 6.0 hours.When considering carbon emissions,the transportation distance of 600 km and above is the absolute dominant range of high-speed railway express transportation,with a dominant transportation time of 2.4 hours.The absolute advantage distance of high-speed railway over highways will expand by 100 kilometers on the left boundary of the interval for every 0.1 increase in carbon emission weight coefficient.Under the speeds of 200 km·h^(-1),250 km·h^(-1),300 km·h^(-1),and 350 km·h^(-1),the maximum increase in critical distance between highways and high-speed railway is achieved at 250 km·h^(-1),which is 50%higher than the critical distance under 200 km·h^(-1).When the carbon emission factor of air express transportation is reduced by half,the left boundary of its advantageous distance range will expand by 23%.

关 键 词：综合运输 临界运距 LOGIT模型 快捷货物 碳排放 高铁时速 

分 类 号：U116[交通运输工程]