基于土地利用的驻马店市碳源/汇时空分布及预测  

Spatio-temporal Distribution and Prediction of Carbon Source and Sink Based on Land Use in Zhumadian City

作　　者：冯国平 田国行[1] FENG Guoping;TIAN Guohang(School of Landscape Architecture and Art,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学风景园林与艺术学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2023年第6期219-227,共9页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(51808198);河南省城乡绿地资源与景观生态设计学科创新引智基地项目(GXJD006)。

摘　　要：土地覆盖变化是引起陆地生态系统碳源/汇变化的重要原因,研究土地利用转型与碳源/汇关系对优化区域土地利用规划,实现可持续发展与“双碳”目标具有重要意义。运用空间分析技术对碳源/汇的时空变化进行分析,通过预设3种未来发展情景对驻马店市未来碳源/汇变化进行预测。结果表明:(1)驻马店市净碳排放量由2005年的268.13×10^(4) t增加到2020年的578.04×10^(4) t,增加309.91×10^(4) t,呈现逐年增加趋势。(2)驻马店市土地利用转型表现为碳储量减少的过程主要为耕地转为建设用地和林地转为耕地,碳储量增加主要为耕地转为林地、建设用地转为水域。(3)通过灰色模型以及PLUS模型预测驻马店市未来土地利用及碳源/汇的时空变化,预测结果为驻马店市未来净碳排放量持续上升,但在耕地保护情景下上升趋势明显减缓。在保护耕地基础上,驻马店市在未来土地规划中,要控制建设用地向生态用地的扩张,加快农业技术改革,实现低碳循环发展。Land cover change is a significant factor contributing to the variation in carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial ecosystem.Investigating the relationship between land use transition and carbon dynamics is crucial for optimizing regional land use planning and achieving sustainable development and the"dual carbon"goals.This study employed spatial analysis technology to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of carbon sources and sinks.By considering three future development scenarios,it predicted the future dynamics of carbon sources and sinks in Zhumadian City.The results showed that:(1)The net carbon emission of Zhumadian City had exhibited an increasing trend,rising from 268.13×10^(4) t in 2005 to 578.04×10^(4) t in 2020,with an increment of 309.91×10^(4) t.(2)Land use transitions in Zhumadian City involved a reduction in carbon stocks primarily due to the conversion of cropland to construction land and forestland to cropland,while the increase in carbon stocks primarily stemmed from the conversion of cropland to forestland and construction land to water area.(3)Applying the grey model and PLUS model,future spatiotemporal changes in land use and carbon dynamics in Zhumadian City were projected.The results indicated a continuous rise in net carbon emissions,although the rate of increase significantly slowed down under the scenario of cultivated land protection.Based on the preservation of cultivated land,Zhumadian City should restrain the expansion of construction land into ecological areas,expedite agricultural technological reforms,and foster low-carbon circular development.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳源 碳汇 时空特征 多情景模拟 驻马店市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]