基于粗糙集-区间灰数-DEMATEL模型的长期照护制度设计影响因素识别研究  

Identification of Influencing Factors in Long-term Care System Design Based on Rough Set-interval Grey Number-Dematel Model

作　　者：李亦轩 褚福灵[1] Li Yixuan;Chu Fuling(School of Insurance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院,北京102206

出　　处：《管理评论》2023年第10期320-327,共8页Management Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD117);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71731007)。

摘　　要：失能老人长期照护问题已经成为我国亟待解决的社会保障问题,建立健全长期照护制度是解决这一问题的重要基础,而识别长期照护制度设计的影响因素是关键环节。基于此,本文首先结合国内外学术界长期照护研究进展及已经开展的长期照护工作实践,归纳提炼长期照护制度设计影响因素的初始指标;其次,采用粗糙集方法进行信息重复性约简,筛选出影响长期照护制度设计的16项指标;最后,运用区间灰数与DEMATEL相结合的方法识别各指标对长期照护制度设计的作用关系与影响程度,并得出相关结论。研究结果显示:长期照护顶层设计、长期照护服务需求、长期照护保险类型选择、长期照护立法、长期照护给付内容、长期照护服务体系设计、失能等级评估标准、长期照护的国际借鉴、长期照护保险缴费标准9项指标是长期照护制度设计的直接影响因素,其余7项指标为间接影响因素。本研究为我国失能老人长期照护制度设计影响因素识别提供了新的研究视角与方法,为完善我国长期照护制度设计提供了理论参照与技术支撑。The long-term care for disabled elders has become a social security issue that need to be settled urgently in China.The design of the long-term care system is an important basis for solving this problem,and identifying the influencing factors of the system is a key premise of system design.In light of this,initial influencing factors of long-term care system design are collected and summarized based on academic studies and practices regarding to the long-term care.Information repetition is reduced with the help of the rough set theory to derive 16 influencing factors of long-term care system design.Interval gray number and DEMATEL techniques are jointed used to observe the impacts of each indicator on the design of long-term care system.The results demonstrate that nine indicators including long-term care top-level design,long-term care service demand,long-term care insurance type selection,long-term care legislation,long-term care payment content,long-term care service system design,evaluation criteria for disability grade,learning from international experiences,payment standard of long-term care insurance are direct influencing factors and are the essence of long-term care system design.In the meanwhile,the remaining seven indicators are indirect influencing factors,which play an assistant role in the system design.During this process,the relationships and influence degree of various factors should be comprehensively taken into account to promote the steady progress of the long-term care system design.This study provides a new research perspective and method for determinants identification of the long-term care system design in China,and also provides a theoretical reference for the design of long-term care system.

关 键 词：长期照护 制度设计 影响因素 DEMATEL 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险] D669.6[政治法律—政治学]