长时间尺度下济南泉水动态特征与驱动因素演变分析  

Analysis of dynamic characteristics and driving factors of Jinan spring water on a long-time scale

作　　者：孙斌 李常锁 许庆宇 高帅 刘春伟 邢立亭 于令芹 SUN Bin;LI Changsuo;XU Qingyu;GAO Shuai;LIU Chunwei;XING Liting;YU Lingqin(801 Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology&Mineral Resources(Shandong Provincial Geomineral Engineering Exploration Institute),Jinan,Shandong 250014,China;Shandong Engineering Research Center for Environmental Protection and Remediation on Groundwater,Jinan,Shandong 250014,China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong 266100,China;School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan,Shandong 250002,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省地质矿产勘查开发局八〇一水文地质工程地质大队(山东省地矿工程勘察院),山东济南250014 [2]山东省地下水环境保护与修复工程技术研究中心,山东济南250014 [3]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 [4]济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南250002

出　　处：《中国岩溶》2023年第5期898-906,916,共10页Carsologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42272288,42202294);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2021QD084)。

摘　　要：为识别60多年济南市区泉水动态变化规律,以长系列动态监测资料为基础,利用相关分析、偏相关分析、回归分析及水均衡分析等方法,对泉水动态变化特征及其自然-人类活动等影响因素进行分析。结果表明:济南市区四大泉群动态经历了壮观喷涌、景观衰减、长期间断断流和调控复涌四个变化阶段,总体表现为驱动因素逐渐增多,泉水复涌前降水量影响逐渐减弱,开采量、城市建设及水利工程影响逐渐增强,复涌后人工调控占据主导作用。定量识别出:一阶段主控因素为降水量和开采量,平均影响量58.17、-9.58万m^(3)·d^(-1),二阶段主控因素降水量、开采量和水利工程,平均影响量52.01、-42.61、-5.98万m^(3)·d^(-1),三阶段主控因素为开采量、降水量、水利工程和城市建设,平均影响量-51.82、51.42、-6.92、-2.40万m^(3)·d^(-1),四阶段主要受控降水量、开采量、生态补源、城市建设和水利工程,平均影响量为55.38、-25.44、10.36、-8.99、-6.56万m^(3)·d^(-1)。相关研究可为北方岩溶泉水保护提供依据。Springs of Jinan City in Shandong Province are typically large karst ones in Northern China.With 136 mouths of springs,there are four major spring groups,namely,Baotu Spring,Heihu spring,Wulongtan spring and Pearl spring,distributed around the moat in the urban area.Springs are the lifeblood of Jinan City and play an important role in the development of this city.However,since the dry season in 1972,the springs had witnessed seasonal cutoffs.Baotu Spring even experienced complete cutoffs throughout the respective year of 1982,1988 and 1989.From 1999 to 2002,the cutoff of this spring spanned 926 days,the longest cutoff time in history.Until September 2003,thanks to a series of measures taken by the government,the four major springs began to gush all yearround,but the spring flow is much less than before.Currently,studies usually focus on short-time-span spring dynamics in Jinan instead of long-term comparative studies on spring dynamics in different periods.Especially,the strong human influence on spring dynamics after springs gushed again needs further research.Few analyses of the influence factors of complex human activities,such as the impact of urban construction are relatively few.In these studies,the whole built-up area has been taken as the object,which ignores the fact that the runoff discharge area itself does not have the condition of infiltration,resulting in the overestimation of hardening area in statistics.In order to comprehensively explore the dynamic evolution of the four major spring groups and the main control factors affecting spring gushing,we have conducted a study on the dynamic characteristics and causes of springs over the past 60 years for the development and utilization of karst groundwater resources and environmental protection in the Jinan region.To identify the dynamic change pattern of the four spring groups in Jinan,we have studied the dynamic change characteristics of the springs and their influencing factors such as natural-human activities,etc.through correlation analysis,partial

关 键 词：济南 四大泉群 泉水动态特征 驱动因素 

分 类 号：P641.5[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]