中国天然气进口通道安全评价  

Safety Evaluation of China’s Natural Gas Import Channel

作　　者：李宏勋[1] 赵颖 郑鹭 LI Hongxun;ZHAO Ying;ZHENG Lu(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China))

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2023年第6期47-55,共9页Petroleum and new energy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目《我国天然气进口安全战略研究》(20BJY078)。

摘　　要：中国已经成为世界上最大的天然气进口国,天然气进口安全成了保障中国能源供应安全的至关重要的因素,因此进口通道的安全也十分重要。从进口来源国安全、通道运输安全及进口国安全3个角度选取了12项指标,构建了中国天然气进口通道安全评价指标体系,并利用主成分分析和K-Means聚类分析建立了安全评价模型,对中国天然气进口通道的安全状况进行分析。结果表明,①LNG接收站数量、LNG接收站接收能力、管道气年运输量、LNG年运输量、进口集中度、海峡数量、通道长度、天然气对外依存度和进口来源国的政治稳定性这9项指标对中国天然气进口通道安全的影响较大;②2006—2021年,中国天然气进口通道安全依次经历了较为安全状态(2006—2008年)、不安全状态(2009—2012年)、较为安全状态(2013—2016年)和安全状态(2017—2021年)。提出确保中国天然气进口通道安全的5项措施,①加快基础设施建设,增强LNG接收能力;②加大天然气综合运力建设,提升进口通道承载能力;③深化务实外交合作,优化天然气进口来源;④壮大军事力量,加强管控力度;⑤加大科技研发投资,增强勘探开发力度。China has become the world’s largest importer of natural gas,and the safety of natural gas imports has become a crucial factor in ensuring the security of China’s energy supply,so the safety of import channels is very important.This research selects 12 indicators from three perspectives of import source country security,channel transportation security and import country security,constructs a safety evaluation index system for China’s natural gas import channels,and establishes a safety evaluation model using principal component analysis and K-Means clustering analysis to analyze the safety status of China’s natural gas import channels.And the following research results are obtained.First,the safety of China’s natural gas import channels is influenced more by 9 indexes,including number of LNG terminals,receiving capacity of LNG terminals,annual transportation of pipeline gas,annual LNG transportation,import concentration ratio,number of straits,channel length,natural gas external dependence and stability of import source countries.Second,the security of China’s natural gas import channels experienced four states during 2006-2021:relatively safe state(2006-2008),unsafe state(2009-2012),relatively safe state(2013-2016)and safe state(2017-2021).To ensure the safety of China’s natural gas import channels,it is necessary to take the following measures:accelerate infrastructure construction and enhance the LNG receiving capacity;increase the construction of comprehensive natural gas transportation capacity and enhance the carrying capacity of import channels;deepen pragmatic diplomacy to optimize the sources of natural gas imports;strengthen military strength and strengthen control efforts;increase investment in technological research and development,and enhance exploration and development efforts.

关 键 词：天然气 进口通道 安全评价 主成分分析 K-Means聚类分析 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] F426[经济管理—产业经济]