基于分治思想及火焰燃烧模型的输电线路跳闸风险评估方法  

Transmission Line Trip Risk Assessment Method Based on Divide-and-Conquer Approach and Flame Combustion Model

作　　者：文刚 周仿荣 钱国超 马仪 王一帆 付一桐 王开正 WEN Gang;ZHOU Fangrong;QIAN Guochao;MA Yi;WANG Yifan;FU Yitong;WANG Kaizheng(Electric Power Research Institute of Yunnan Electric Power Company,Kunming 650217,China;Faculty of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,云南昆明650217 [2]昆明理工大学电力工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期66-77,共12页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52107017);云南省重大科技专项项目(202202AD080010).

摘　　要：为减少火灾对电网造成不可估量的损失,提出了一种基于分治思想及火焰燃烧模型的输电线路跳闸风险评估方法.该方法需要分别计算山火蔓延到线路下方的概率以及线路下方山火引起的闪络概率,并将两种概率进行耦合得出跳闸概率.一方面,提出了基于分治思想的杆塔定位算法以快速获得山火蔓延关键参数--火点与杆塔的距离,并综合气象、植被和地形等影响因素,计算得到山火蔓延到线路下方的概率;另一方面,采用非线性分析方法,获得火焰区的击穿电压计算公式,并依据不同植被类型和高度下的火焰燃烧模型计算导线与植被间空气间隙、导线间空气间隙的击穿电压,在此基础上,结合线路电压等级可得出闪络击穿概率.综合蔓延过程及线路下方的燃烧特性,最终获得较为准确的输电线路山火跳闸风险实时评估模型.算例分析中,本文方法的评估结果与跳闸案例相符,且所提出的杆塔定位算法的运行时间明显优于其他算法,能够实时、有效地计算输电线路山火跳闸概率,对山火灾害下电网的应急处置具有重要的参考价值.In order to reduce the immeasurable losses caused by wildfires to the power grid,a transmission line trip risk assessment method based on the divide-and-conquer approach and flame combustion model is proposed.This method involves separately calculating the probability of a wildfire spreading beneath the power line and the probability of flashovers caused by the wildfire beneath the line.These two probabilities are coupled to determine the trip probability.On one hand,a pole positioning algorithm based on the divide-and-conquer approach is proposed to quickly obtain key parameters for wildfire propagation,such as the distance between the fire source and the transmission towers.Considering various influencing factors such as meteorological conditions,vegetation,and terrain,the probability of a wildfire spreading beneath the power line is calculated.On the other hand,a nonlinear analysis approach is used to derive a formula for calculating the breakdown voltage in the flame zone.Using different vegetation types and flame combustion models at various heights,the breakdown voltage for the air gaps between conductors and vegetation,as well as between conductors,is computed.Combining this with the voltage level of the transmission line,the flashover breakdown probability is determined.By integrating the propagation process and the burning characteristics beneath the power line,a more accurate real-time assessment model for the wildfire trip risk of transmission lines is obtained.In case study analysis,the results obtained using this method are consistent with actual trip cases,and the proposed pole positioning algorithm significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of runtime.Therefore,this method can effectively and in real-time calculate the wildfire trip probability for transmission lines,providing valuable reference for emergency response in the event of wildfires affecting the power grid.

关 键 词：输电线路 火焰燃烧模型 分治 闪络击穿概率 山火跳闸概率 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]