基于统计估算法的可能最大暴雨递减指数研究  

Study on the Decline Index of the Probable Maximum Rainfall Based on the Statistical Estimation Method

作　　者：张金良 盖永岗 王鹏 罗秋实 ZHANG Jinliang;GE Yonggang;WANG Peng;LUO Qiushi(Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Water Control and Water Security in the Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部黄河流域水治理与水安全重点实验室,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期75-80,共6页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1300803);中国保护黄河基金项目“高标准新型淤地坝理论技术研究”(2021YF013)。

摘　　要：基于工程设计所需,短历时的PMP估算是PMP估算研究的前沿与热点问题之一。梳理了统计估算法和暴雨递减指数的计算方法及特点,基于统计估算法的优点,在现有实测暴雨资料的基础上,提出了通过计算不同历时的PMP值来推求PMP量级暴雨的分段递减指数值的新方法,并以岔巴沟流域为例进行了实例分析。结果表明:该方法推求的PMP短历时暴雨递减指数中,1~6 h时段的暴雨递减指数n 2值小于6~24 h时段的暴雨递减指数n 3值;各时段的暴雨递减指数值与相当量级的万年一遇设计暴雨递减指数值基本接近,可以反映PMP量级暴雨的递减指数特征。该研究结果可为类似区域由长历时PMP推求短历时PMP的暴雨递减指数值提供一种新的思路。Based on the need of engineering design,short-duration PMP estimation is one of the frontier and hot issues in PMP estimation research.The statistical estimation method and the calculation method and characteristics of rainstorm decline index are reviewed.Based on the advantages of statistical estimation method,a new method is proposed to calculate the fractional decline index value of PMP magnitude rainstorm by calculating the PMP value of different duration on the basis of the measured rainstorm data.The Chabagou watershed is taken as an example to carry on the case analysis.The results are as follows.In the PMP short duration rainstorm decline index derived by this method,n 2 value during one to six hour is smaller than n 3 value during six to twenty-four hour.The values of the storm recession index for each time period are basically close to the values of the equivalent magnitude once in ten thousand years design rainstorm recession index,which can reflect the characteristics of the rainstorm decline index of PMP magnitude.The results of this study may provide a new way of thinking for similar regions to derive the value of rainstorm decline index from long duration PMP to short duration PMP.

关 键 词：短历时PMP 统计估算法 暴雨公式 暴雨递减指数 

分 类 号：TV62[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1