基于时序NPP的安徽省耕地生产力时空分异与趋势分析  

Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Trend Analysis of Cultivated Land Productivity in Anhui Province Based on Time Series NPP

作　　者：陈实 黄银兰 CHEN Shi;HUANG Yin-lan(School of Geography and Planning,Chizhou University,Chizhou,Anhui 247000)

机构地区：[1]池州学院地理与规划学院,安徽池州247000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2023年第24期69-73,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：安徽省社科规划项目(AHSKQ2021D172)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析安徽省耕地生产力时空变化差异及其变化趋势。[方法]以2000—2020年时序MOD17A3HGF净初级生产力为数据基础,采用Theil-Sen Median趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数以及地理空间分析技术等方法,探究安徽省耕地NPP的时空分异特征,并分析其时空演变趋势。[结果]近21年来安徽省耕地NPP在时间上呈波动增加的态势[0.331 g/(m^(2)·10 a)],空间上耕地NPP以增长趋势为主(93%),仅有7%的耕地表现下降趋势;与2000—2010年相比,2010—2020年安徽省43%的耕地NPP趋势变化类型为降级,主要分布在滁州市、淮南市和亳州市等城市,10%的耕地NPP趋势变化类型为升级,主要分布在合肥市、宣城市和芜湖市。未来安徽省75%的耕地NPP继续表现增长趋势,分布在合肥市、滁州市、六安市和宿州市等地区,5%的耕地NPP出现下降趋势,依然分布在各个城市市区附近,20%的耕地NPP趋势不确定,主要分布在皖北大部地区。[结论]2000—2020年安徽省耕地NPP在时空上呈现增加的态势,滁州市、淮南市和亳州市等城市耕地NPP时空变化较为敏感,合肥市、滁州市、六安市和宿州市等城市耕地产能提升潜力较大。[Objective]The temporal and spatial variation of cultivated land productivity in Anhui Province and variation trend was analyzed.[Method]Based on the data set of MOD17A3HGF net primary productivity from 2000 to 2020,the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics and evolution trend of cultivated land NPP in Anhui Province were explored by using the methods of Theil-Sen Median trend analysis,Mann-kedall test,Hurst index and geospatial analysis technology.[Result]In the past 21 years,the NPP of cultivated land in Anhui Province showed a fluctuating increasing trend[0.331 g/(m^(2)·10 a)].In terms of space,NPP of cultivated land mainly showed an increasing trend(93%),and only 7%of that of cultivated land showed a decreasing trend.Compared with 2000-2010,43%of trend change types of the cultivated land NPP were degraded in 2010-2020,mainly occurred in Chuzhou,Huainan and Bozhou,and 10%of the trend change types of the cultivated land NPP were upgraded,mainly distributed in Hefei,Xuancheng and Wuhu.In the future,75%of the cultivated land NPP in Anhui Province will continue to show an increasing trend,which will be distributed in Hefei,Chuzhou,Lu’an and Suzhou.5%of the cultivated land NPP will show a decreasing trend,which will be still distributed near the urban areas of various cities.20%of the cultivated land NPP trend is uncertain,mainly distributed in most areas of Northern Anhui.[Conclusion]From^(2)000 to 2020,the NPP of cultivated land in Anhui Province showed an increasing trend in time and space.The spatial and temporal changes of NPP of cultivated land in cities such as Chuzhou,Huainan and Bozhou were sensitive,while cities such as Hefei,Chuzhou,Lu’an and Suzhou had great potential for cultivated land productivity improvement.

关 键 词：耕地 NPP 产能提升 粮食安全 时空分异 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]