SGM模型牦牛子模型生长发育模块校验及应用  

Calibration,validation,and application of the yak growth and development module in the SGM yak sub-model

作　　者：刘海波 BEHRENDT Karl 吴建平[4,5] 杜文华 KEMP David[3] BADGERY Warwick 宫旭胤 刘立山[8] 金茜 LIU Haibo;BEHRENDT Karl;WU Jianping;DU Wenhua;KEMP David;BADGERY Warwick;GONG Xuyin;LIU Lishan;JIN Qian(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;Harper Adams University,Newport TF108NB,Shropshire,United Kingdom;Gulbali Institute,Charles Sturt University,Orange 28000,NSW,Australia;The Institute of Rural Development,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;College of Grassland Science,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;Pratacultural College,Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;NSW Department of Primary Industries Agricultural Research Institute,Orange 28000,NSW,Australia;Institute of Animal Husbandry,Pasture and Green Agriculture,Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,甘肃兰州730070 [2]Harper Adams University,Shropshire Newport TF108NB [3]Gulbali Institute,Charles Sturt University,NSW Orange 28000 [4]甘肃省农业科学院,甘肃兰州730070 [5]西北师范大学新农村发展研究院,甘肃兰州730070 [6]甘肃农业大学草业学院,甘肃兰州730070 [7]NSW Department of Primary Industries Orange Agricultural Research Institute,NSW Orange 2800 [8]甘肃省农业科学院畜草与绿色农业研究所,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《草业科学》2023年第12期3163-3176,共14页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：甘肃省农业科学院院列博士基金项目(2019GAAS30);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201503134);甘肃省2022年度重点人才项目(2022RCXM018);西藏重大专项(XZ202101ZD003N)。

摘　　要：基于前期构建的Sustainable Grassland Model(SGM)模型框架,选用并改进GRAZPLAN动物模型和不完全小区模拟方法,在MATLAB平台对SGM模型进行二次开发,建立牦牛子模型生长发育模块,以期为青藏高原可持续放牧生产体系的构建提供研究工具及决策支持。采用局部敏感度分析法,筛选并计算敏感度系数确定牦牛子模型生长发育模块下放牧采食量和体重变化模拟中的敏感参数,以已发表的研究数据为基础,利用最小二乘法建立敏感参数校准模型并完成模块校准,校准后运行模型,得到的增重模拟结果与前人发表的研究数据比对后进行统计分析,完成模型检验。检验后的模型以甘肃省玛曲县高寒草甸典型牦牛牧户(草地中度退化)为研究对象进行模型示范。结果表明:经参数校验后的SGM牦牛子模型在模拟牦牛放牧采食量和增重方面切实可行。示范结果证明SGM模型能够合理地模拟粗放型生产管理下放牧压力的降低对高寒草甸牦牛放牧生产体系草地地上生物量、植物群落功能组成、家畜放牧采食量和体重变化的长期影响,说明SGM模型在青藏高原高寒草甸模拟放牧压力对放牧生产体系的长期影响具有可行性。该模型采用不同的参数,基于同一套数学公式实现对放牧牛羊生长发育的模拟,在未来牛羊放牧系统模型开发中具有良好的应用前景,但需要针对模拟对象的实际实施校准,且对牦牛产奶量和放牧采食量的模拟仍需进一步开发和改进。Based on the Sustainable Grassland Model(SGM)model framework established previously,this study constructed a yak growth and development module in the SGM yak sub-model.This was conducted to provide research tools and decision-making support for the construction of a sustainable grazing production system on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The modified GRAZPLAN animal model and the partial paddock simulation method were used for the secondary development of the SGM model on the MATLAB platform.Local sensitivity analysis was applied,and sensitive parameters for the simulation of grazing yak dry matter intake(DMI)and live weight change were selected by calculating the sensitivity coefficient(SC).Based on data published by others,the least squares method was used to construct a calibration model to fulfill the module calibration.Liveweight data from the published literature were used to statistically compare the difference between simulation data and observed data to conduct module validation.To demonstrate the application of the model,a typical yak farm with moderately degraded pastures was analyzed based on data collected in the alpine meadow area of Maqu County.The results showed that,after calibration and validation,the yak growth and development module in the SGM yak sub-model was able to mimic grazing yak DMI and live weight gain.Results from the application demonstration showed that the SGM model was able to mimic the effects of decreased stocking densities on grassland aboveground biomass,pasture composition,grazing DMI,and live weight changes in the alpine meadow yak production system under traditional management over longer timescales.This indicates that the SGM model is suitable for simulating the effects of stocking density on the grazing production system in alpine areas on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.This simulation method has strong potential for the development of a future grazing system model because it has the same functions as the two different sets of parameters for sheep and cattle.However,calibration n

关 键 词：农业模型 放牧生产体系 模拟 青藏高原 牦牛 干物质采食量 增重 

分 类 号：S823.85[农业科学—畜牧学]