人民币国际化、金融开放与汇率波动——基于粤港澳大湾区的视角  

RMB Internationalization,Financial Opening and Exchange Rate Fluctuation:From the Perspective of the GBA

作　　者：申琳[1] 李玉萍 SHEN Lin;LI Yuping(School of Economics,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《信息与管理研究》2023年第6期41-51,共11页Journal of Information and Management

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY17G030033)。

摘　　要：基于建设粤港澳大湾区推进人民币国际化进程的视角,考察大湾区建设在促进离在岸金融市场开放互通、稳定离在岸人民币汇率波动中起到的作用机制。通过对大湾区内11个地区4个层面6个金融开放度量指标进行主成分分析,构建大湾区金融开放度指数,并以人民币国际化指数为转换变量,运用面板PSTR模型实证检验,发现不同人民币国际化程度区制下金融开放对人民币离在岸汇率波动存在非线性效应。结果表明:随着人民币国际化程度的不断提高,金融开放对离在岸汇率波动具有显著的非线性影响,当人民币国际化程度从低区制转到高区制时,金融开放对汇率波动的抑制作用减弱,甚至会扩大汇率波动的幅度。基于此,提出在宏观经济环境下粤港澳大湾区促进金融开放过程中应注意的金融风险问题及相关政策建议。From the perspective of the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)and its promotion of the internationalization of RMB,the role and mechanism of the construction of the GBA are examined in promoting the opening and interoperability of offshore and onshore financial markets and stabilizing the fluctuations of offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates.Based on the principal component analysis of six financial openness metrics at four levels in 1l regions in the GBA,the GBA financial openness index is constructed.And using the RMB internationalization index as the conversion variable,the panel PSTR model finds that financial liberalization has a nonlinear effect on the fluctuation of RMB off-shore exchange rate under the regional system of different degrees of RMB internationalization.The results show that with the continuous improvement of RMB internationalization,financial openness has a significant nonlinear effect on offshore exchange rate fluctuations:when the degree of RMB internationalization changes from a low-regional system to a high-regional system,the impact of financial openness on exchange rate fluctuations is weakened,which will even expand the range of exchange rate fluctuations.Finally,the financial risks that should be paid attention to and some relevant policy suggestions are put forward in promoting the financial opening of GBA under the macroeconomic environment.

关 键 词：汇率波动 粤港澳大湾区 金融开放 人民币国际化。 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]