三峡区间年最大降雨与上游洪水遭遇风险研究  

Study on coincidence risks for annual maximum rainfall in Three Gorges region and flood events in upper Yangtze River

作　　者：姚礼双 彭杨[1] 廉博勋 罗诗琦 张志鸿[1] YAO Lishuang;PENG Yang;LIAN Boxun;LUO Shiqi;ZHANG Zhihong(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2023年第12期48-60,共13页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51679088)。

摘　　要：三峡区间降雨往往在汛期集中发生,一旦与上游洪水叠加,会对三峡防洪产生不利影响。为探究三峡区间降雨与长江上游洪水的遭遇规律,本文基于阿基米德Copula函数建立三峡区间年最大降雨和长江上游年最大洪水的联合分布,从时间遭遇和量级遭遇(包括峰值和过程)两方面解析两者遭遇的风险特征。结果表明,区间降雨和上游洪水发生时间遭遇呈双峰型,区间年最大日面雨量、7日面雨量一般早于上游年最大流量、7日洪量发生;设计频率越大,发生区间降雨和上游洪水峰值和过程遭遇的风险也越大,且发生峰值和过程遭遇时,区间降雨早于上游洪水的遭遇风险较大;同一设计频率发生过程遭遇的风险要大于峰值遭遇的风险。研究成果可为三峡水库防洪调度提供参考。Rainfall events in the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River tend to be concentrated on flood season.The coincidence of such rainfalls with flood events occurring in the upper reaches of the river may result in adverse impacts on the flood control of the Three Gorges reservoir.To investigate the characteristics of this coincidence,this paper calculates the joint distribution of the annual maximum rainfall in TGR and the annual maximum flood in the upper Yangtze River based on the Archimedean Copula function,and examines the risk of their coincidence from aspects of both time and magnitude(including peak value and hydrograph).The results indicate that temporal coincidence manifests a bimodal distribution with two peaks,and the annual maximum daily areal rainfall and 7-day areal rainfall in TGR generally occur earlier than the annual maximum flow and 7-day flood volume in the upper Yangtze River.The probabilities of both the flood peak coincidence and hydrograph coincidence increase with the increasing design frequency,and the coincidence that the TGR rainfall occurs earlier than the upper Yangtze River flood has a higher probability in both cases.For a given design frequency,the probability of hydrograph coincidence is greater than that of flood peak coincidence.This study would help the flood control scheduling of the Three Gorges reservoir.

关 键 词：降雨和洪水 三峡区间 长江上游 阿基米德Copula函数 遭遇风险 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]