风险链视角下的工程进度风险分析方法研究  

Study on engineering progress risk analysis methods under perspective of risk chain

作　　者：周君 唐艳娟[1] 张文嘉 王海娟[1] ZHOU Jun;TANG Yanjuan;ZHANG Wenjia;WANG Haijuan(College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2023年第12期96-107,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

摘　　要：为揭示风险传播规律,辨识造成进度不确定性的根本原因,基于风险链理论,结合贝叶斯信念网络及Monte Carlo技术对风险演化过程进行定性-定量描述,开发出一种以风险驱动原理为基本思想的工程进度风险分析方法。该方法中对风险因素相关性、风险的多重不确定状态以及模拟环境的合理度设置都进行了相应考虑。工程应用表明,该方法与Monte Carlo模拟法、标准相关进度风险分析模型(CSRAM)的平均总工期模拟结果最大误差仅为1.5%,同时利用敏感性分析功能实现了挖掘项目层、各活动层关键风险诱因的目标,对协助管理者科学制定纾困对策具有一定参考价值。To reveal the law of risk propagation and to identify the root cause of schedule uncertainty,a method of engineering schedule risk analysis is developed with the risk-driven principle as the basic idea,based on the risk chain theory and combined with the Bayesian Belief Networks and the Monte Carlo technology to qualitatively-quantitatively describe the risk evolution process.In this method,the correlation of risk factors,the multiple uncertainty states of risks,and the rationality setting of the simulation environment are considered.Engineering application shows that its maximum error of the simulated average total construction period is only 1.5%,compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method and the standard correlated schedule risk analysis model(CSRAM).Its sensitivity analysis function can be used to mine the key risk triggers at the project level and each activity level,a useful device for managers to formulate relief countermeasures scientifically.

关 键 词：工程进度管理 风险链 进度风险分析 风险驱动 多重不确定性 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]