衡量金融支持力度:存贷比还是社会融资规模?  

Assessing Financial Support Intensity:Loan-to-Deposit Ratio or Social Financing Scale?

作　　者：刘敏[1] LIU Min(People's Bank of China Zhuzhou Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行株洲市分行

出　　处：《金融经济》2023年第11期50-55,共6页Finance Economy

摘　　要：存贷比和社会融资规模都是衡量金融要素投入的重要指标,随着金融市场不断发展,金融产品持续创新,传统的存贷比指标很可能无法全面反映金融支持地方经济的力度,社会融资规模或将成为主要的金融考察依据。本文基于湖南省实际,对存贷比和社会融资规模指标进行对比分析,得出以下结论。第一,以存贷比指标衡量区域经济金融发展存在明显短板,多种融资渠道对贷款的替代效应明显,贷款真实需求不足、金融政策导向等因素易导致存贷比信息失真。第二,社会融资规模具有取代存贷比指标的多重优势。其作为国家宏观调控重要参考指标,能多角度、全方位反映各类融资支持实体经济的情况,与经济的相关性更高,能前瞻性地反映经济发展变化,对宏观调控政策有一定指示作用。鉴于此,本文建议地方政府应用社会融资规模指标,多角度、更全面地掌握地区金融发展状况,切实推动地区社会融资规模合理增长。The choice between the loan-to-deposit ratio and the social financing scale as indicators for evaluating financial support intensity is a critical consideration in the evolving landscape of the financial market.As financial markets continue to develop and innovate,the traditional measure of the loan-to-deposit ratio may struggle to provide a comprehensive and accurate reflection of the level of financial support for local economies.This prompts the question of whether the social financing scale should be the primary metric for assessing the intensity of financial support.This study,rooted in the practical context of Hunan Province,conducts a comparative analysis of the loan-to-deposit ratio and the social financing scale indicators,leading to noteworthy conclusions.Firstly,using the loan-to-deposit ratio as a gauge for regional economic and financial development reveals significant limitations.Various financing channels demonstrate a notable substitutive effect on loans,and factors such as insufficient actual loan demand and the influence of financial policy orientation can contribute to distorted loan-to-deposit ratio information.Secondly,the social financing scale exhibits multiple advantages over the loan-to-deposit ratio as an indicator.Serving as a crucial reference for national macroeconomic regulation,the social financing scale can comprehensively reflect various forms of financing support for the real economy from diverse perspectives.It boasts a stronger correlation with economic conditions,demonstrates a proactive and sensitive response to changes in economic development,and plays a significant role in guiding macroeconomic regulation policies.In light of these findings,this paper recommends that local governments consider utilizing the social financing scale as the primary indicator to comprehensively assess the financial development situation in the region.This approach aims to effectively drive the judicious growth of the regional social financing scale.

关 键 词：存贷比 社会融资规模 金融支持力度 区域经济发展 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F832.7