南水北调中线工程沿线寒潮及区域极端低温时空变化规律  

Spatiotemporal variations of cold waves and regional extreme low temperature along the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project

作　　者：周中元 王涛[1] 陈玉壮 孙亚翡 路锦枝 ZHOU Zhongyuan;WANG Tao;CHEN Yuzhuang;SUN Yafei;LU Jinzhi(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2023年第6期1098-1108,共11页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202501);国家自然科学基金项目(51979291,52009144);中国水科院科研专项项目(HY0145B032021)。

摘　　要：为掌握南水北调中线工程沿线寒潮及区域极端低温时空变化规律,基于南水北调中线工程陶岔渠首至北拒马河暗渠沿线40 km宽度范围内的56个气象站点1960—2020年日最低、最高气温数据资料,分析5个极端气候指数时空变化规律,另外计算9个典型气象站1960—2020年寒潮发生频次,采用Sen斜率估计方法进一步分析其变化趋势。结果表明:9个典型气象站中,1960—2020年7个气象站寒潮发生频次总体呈减少趋势;2个气象站寒潮发生频次总体呈下降趋势,但2000年以来呈现明显增多的异常趋势;邢台以北区域随纬度升高寒潮呈增多趋势。对于极端气候指数1960—2020年9个气象站每年度日最低气温的最小值总体均呈现上升趋势,但1990年以来保定站呈现不升反降的异常趋势,邢台、石家庄两站也基本不再上升,处于上升停滞状态;霜冻日数(每年度日最低气温<0℃的天数)、冰冻日数(每年度日最高气温<0℃的天数)、冷夜(最低气温<10%分位值的天数)等极端气候指数总体呈现不同的下降趋势,但邢台以北等站点也呈现不降反升或者下降停滞的异常状态。从空间变化趋势上来看,各气候指数相互之间未呈现整体上一致性的变化规律,冰冻日数沿南水北调中线从南到北下降速率总体呈加快趋势。In cold regions,such as high latitudes during winter,rivers and water conveyance channels often experience the phenomenon of freezing under low temperature conditions.During the initial stage of freezing and the subsequent melting stage,ice floes are prone to get stuck in the channels,forming ice jams and dams,which obstruct the flow of water and raise the water level in the channels,thus adversely affecting winter water transfer.Cold waves and extreme low temperatures in the region often cause significant temperature fluctuations,which are the main factors influencing changes in the ice conditions of rivers and channels.The Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project(MRSWTP)spans multiple latitudes,and the areas north of the Yellow River are affected by ice conditions to varying degrees every year during winter operations.Therefore,analyzing the spatiotemporal variations of cold waves and regional extreme low temperatures along the MRSWTP is of great significance for ice disaster prevention,winter water transportation scheduling,and other related issues.Based on the daily minimum and maximum air temperature data of meteorological stations within a width of 40 km along the route from the head of Taocha Drainage Canal to the Beijuma Culvert of the MRSWTP from 1960 to 2020,the occurrences of cold waves and five extreme cold climate indices were calculated.The Sen’s slope estimator method was employed to analyze their trends.Additionally,the spatial variations of the five extreme climate indices were analyzed using the inverse distance weighting spatial interpolation method based on temperature data from 56 meteorological stations.The results show that among the nine typical weather stations selected,the frequency of cold waves in seven weather stations decreased from 1960 to 2020.The frequency of cold waves in Anyang and Baoding stations showed a downward trend,but since 2000,the number of cold waves has increased significantly.January has the highest frequency of cold waves occurrences,followed by Dec

关 键 词：寒潮 极端气候指数 防凌减灾 冬季输水 气候变化 南水北调中线工程 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV875