基于目标点投影的高炮着发射击毁歼概率计算方法  

A Calculation Method for Kill Probability of Hit-to-Kill Antiaircraft Guns Based on Target Point Projection

作　　者：王亮宽[1] 唐旭 范平 范继[1] 陈晨 WANG Liangkuan;TANG Xu;FAN Ping;FAN Ji;CHEN Chen(Northwest Institute of Mechanical&Electrical Engineering,Xianyang 712099,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西北机电工程研究所,陕西咸阳712099

出　　处：《火炮发射与控制学报》2023年第6期92-98,共7页Journal of Gun Launch & Control

摘　　要：毁歼概率是衡量武器系统作战性能的重要指标之一。针对目前高炮着发射击毁歼概率计算方法存在的计算复杂、误差较大等问题,提出了基于目标点投影的高炮着发射击毁歼概率计算方法,该方法根据目标各部件易损性差异,划分目标轮廓点在炮目垂面的投影区域,利用蒙特卡罗法依次计算弹丸落在各区域的概率,进而得到弹丸对各部件的毁歼概率,最后通过各部件的毁歼概率计算高炮一次点射对目标的毁歼概率。该方法有效解决了传统方法求得毁歼概率误差较大的问题,仿真计算结果表明,该方法能够有效提升毁歼概率计算准确度。Kill probability is one of the important indexes to measure the combat performance of a weapon system.Because results calculated by traditional methods cannot depict accurately the kill probability of hit-to-kill antiaircraft guns,a new calculation method based on target point projection is proposed.The method divides the projected domain of the target contour on the vertical gun-target plane into several parts according to the vulnerability of each part of the target,and then uses the Monte Carlo method to calculate the probabilities of the projectile falling into each projected domain.The kill probability of the projectile in terms of each component of the target is obtained.The kill proba-bility of each component of the target is used to obtain the kill probability of the target with a burst shot.This method effectively decreases errors between calculation results of traditional methods for kill probability and the real kill probability of hit-to-kill firing antiaircraft guns.What is more,simulation calculation results show that this method can effectively improve the calculation accuracy of kill proba-bility.

关 键 词：着发射击 蒙特卡罗法 毁歼概率 最小凸包 

分 类 号：TJ35[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]