基于改进交通仿真模型的城市轨道交通新线客流预测研究  

Research on passenger flow prediction of urban rail transit new line based on improved traffic simulation model

作　　者：柳雪丽 魏薇 LIU Xueli;WEI Wei(School of Civil Engineering,Shaanxi Polytechnic Institute,Xianyang 712000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西工业职业技术学院土木工程学院,陕西咸阳712000

出　　处：《技术与市场》2023年第12期32-35,40,共5页Technology and Market

基　　金：陕西工业职业技术学院科研项目(2023YKYB-023);陕西省教育厅科技项目(21JK0502);教育部第二期供需对接就业育人项目(20230104191)。

摘　　要：为应对轨道交通新线开通改变路网拓扑结构、客流特性及分布规律复杂影响运营决策等问题,首先基于C/S架构、ArcGIS、交通仿真软件二次开发技术建立模型应用辅助系统;其次重点研究该系统中的轨道交通模型,采用改进的Logit模型描述居民的方式选择,构建出行时辰分布模型精确分析乘客高峰小时出行特征;最后以既有线路为例进行模型校核,预测优化调整,实现新线客流量的精细化预测。该仿真模型能够为轨道交通线路规划阶段路网客流状态及其动态变化预测仿真提供技术支持。In order to cope with problems such as changing the topology of the road network and complicated passenger flow characteristics and distribution laws affecting operation decisions,the model application auxiliary system was first established based on C/S architecture,ArcGIS,and secondary development technology of traffic simulation software.Secondly,the rail transit model in the system was studied.The improved Logit model is used to describe the mode selection of residents,and the travel time distribution model is constructed to analyze the travel characteristics of passengers during peak hours accurately.Finally,taking the existing lines as an example,the model is checked,the forecast is optimized and adjusted,and the fine forecast of the passenger flow of the new lines is realized.The simulation model can provide technical support for the prediction and simulation of the passenger flow state and its dynamic change in the rail transit line planning stage.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 客流预测 仿真模型 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]