长三角生物医药创新集群的演化动力--基于系统动力学的仿真分析  

Evolutionary Dynamics of Biomedical Innovation Clusters in the Yangtze River Delta:Simulation Analysis Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：李洁 申俊龙 陈牡丹 Li Jie;Shen Junlong;Chen Mudan(School of Health Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2023年第20期197-204,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“生物医药产业创新集群演化的动力机制与发展路径研究--基于CAS理论”(19YJA630034)。

摘　　要：为进一步深入对生物医药创新集群演化动力机制的探讨,推进区域性生物医药产业创新集群发展,以长三角生物医药创新集群为对象,根据生物医药产业创新集群特征设计系统动力学模型,分析系统动力机制、演化路径和关键变量作为可持续发展决策的杠杆作用点,基于其2012—2021年有关面板数据,对关键要素推动集群创新发展的影响进行仿真模拟分析。结果发现:市场需求子系统为创新集群演化提供根本性动力,其中国内市场需求影响尤为显著;技术创新能力子系统是创新集群演化的内生动力,但研发投入持续高速增长可能不利于集群发展;政府支持子系统是推动创新集群演化的外生动力,且影响显著。据此,建议深挖市场需求,加强研发管理,产学研政密切合作,进一步优化对生物医药产业创新集群的财政投入结构,加速开拓国际市场。In order to further deepen the discussion on the evolutionary dynamics mechanism of biomedical innovation clusters and promote the development of regional biomedical industry innovation clusters,the system dynamics model is designed based on the characteristics of biomedical industry innovation clusters in the Yangtze River Delta,the system dynamics mechanisms,evolutionary paths,and key variables are analyzed as the leverage points for decisionmaking on sustainable development,and based on relevant panel data from 2012 to 2021,the impact of key elements to drive the development of cluster innovation is simulated and analyzed.It finds that the market demand subsystem provides the fundamental driving force for the evolution of innovation clusters,with domestic market demand having a particularly significant impact;technological innovation capability subsystem is endogenous to the evolution of innovation clusters,but continued high growth in R&D investment may be detrimental to cluster development;while the government support subsystem is an exogenous driver of innovation cluster evolution and has a significant impact.Accordingly,it recommends to dig deeper into the market demand,strengthen the management of R&D,closely cooperate with industry,academia,research and government,further optimize the structure of financial investment in the innovation cluster,and accelerate the development of the international market.

关 键 词：创新集群 生物医药产业 产业创新 演化动力 系统动力学 长三角地区 

分 类 号：F269.27[经济管理—国民经济] F427[文化科学] G301