丹江口水库汛期优化调度实践及风险效益分析  

Practice of optimized flood control operation and risk-benefit analysis for Danjiangkou Reservoir during flood season

作　　者：任金秋 董付强[4] 洪兴骏 饶光辉 张利升 REN Jinqiu;DONG Fuqiang;HONG Xingjun;RAO Guanghui;ZHANG Lisheng(Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Basin Water Security,Wuhan 430010,China;Innovation Team for Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Hanjiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower(Group)Limited Liability Company,Wuhan 430048,China)

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [2]流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430010 [3]长江水利委员会水旱灾害防御创新团队,湖北武汉430010 [4]汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司,湖北武汉430048

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第12期15-23,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202805);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704184)。

摘　　要：2021年,丹江口水库在保证中下游防洪安全的前提下,通过优化调度超额完成供水计划,并且首次蓄至170 m。从南水北调中线工程通水以来丹江口水库调度实践中反映出的问题出发,结合年内不同阶段的水库优化调度方案,对2021年丹江口水库汛期调度实践的经验进行分析总结。针对优化调度带来的风险,提出了将汉口站水位作为启动预泄的参考条件、密切关注水雨情预报、利用上游水库对丹江口入库洪水进行错峰调度等应对措施;同时提出了进一步提高流域水雨情预报的预报精度并延长预见期、适当加大汛前消落深度、细化考虑蓄水秋汛期防汛限制水位台阶等研究建议。研究成果可为完善汉江流域防洪调度工作提供支撑。In 2021,the Danjiangkou Reservoir over fulfilled the water supply plan through optimal scheduling for the first time,firstly storing to a water level of 170 m.Focusing on the problems exposed in the practice of reservoir operation since the water supply of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,and combined with the optimal scheduling plan at different stages of the year,this paper analyzed and summarized the experience of Danjiangkou Reservoir scheduling during the flood season in 2021.For the risks brought by optimal scheduling,this paper proposed to use the water level at Hankou Station as a reference condition for starting pre-release scheduling,pay close attention to water and rainfall forecasts,and use upstream reservoirs to control the Danjiangkou Reservoir inflow.At the same time,the paper highlighted various suggestions to enhance flood control scheduling in the Hanjiang River,such as improving the forecast accuracy and extending the forecasting period,lowering the water level at the onset of the flood season,and refining the flood control level in the autumn flood season.The research can provide support for improving the flood control scheduling of the Hanjiang River basin.

关 键 词：防洪风险效益分析 防洪调度 优化调度 丹江口水库 汉江洪水 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]