基于WEP-QTP的长江源区径流组分变化及驱动机制  

Study on change of runoff components and driving mechanism in source region of Changjiang River based on WEP-QTP model

作　　者：李霞[1] 周祖昊[1] 刘佳嘉[1] 王鹏翔 贾仰文[1] LI Xia;ZHOU Zuhao;LIU Jiajia;WANG Pengxiang;JIA Yangwen(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basins,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Institute of Science and Technology,China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第12期105-112,165,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022056);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(WR0145B072021);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目(91647109)。

摘　　要：为研究气候变化条件下高原寒区径流演变规律,利用WEP-QTP模型模拟了1956~2020年长江源区水循环过程,分析了长江源区径流及其组分演变规律,并基于多因素归因分析方法定量分析了径流变化的驱动机制。结果表明:1956~2020年长江源区径流组分中降雨径流、融雪径流及融冰径流占比分别为79.4%,17.2%和3.4%。对比基准期(1956~1998年)与变化期(1999~2020年),气候影响下径流变化量为21.4亿m^(3),气温和降水对径流增加的贡献率分别为-8.4%和108.4%。对径流组分进行分析,气候影响下降雨径流变化量为24.8亿m^(3),气温和降水对降雨径流增加的贡献率分别为36.2%和63.8%;气候影响下融雪径流变化量为-3.1亿m^(3),气温和降水对融雪径流减少的贡献率分别为348.1%和-248.1%;气候影响下融冰径流变化量为-0.3亿m^(3),气温和降水对融冰径流减少的贡献率分别为-21.5%和121.5%。对径流及其组分逐月过程进行分析,气候变化对径流及其组分的影响主要集中在6~10月。In order to study the evolution law of runoff in the source region of Changjiang River,the WEP-QTP(the Water and Energy transfer Processes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau)model was used to simulate the water cycle process in the source region of the Changjiang River from 1956 to 2020,and the driving mechanism of runoff change was quantitatively analyzed based on the multi-factor attribution analysis method.The results showed that from 1956 to 2020,the proportions of rainfall runoff,snowmelt runoff and glacier melt runoff in the runoff components in the source region of the Changjiang River were 79.4%,17.2%and 3.4%,respectively.Comparing the base period(1956~1998)and the change period(1999~2020),the runoff variation under the influence of climate was 2.14 billion m^(3),and the contribution rates of temperature and precipitation to the increase of runoff were-8.4%and 108.4%,respectively.Analysis of runoff components showed that the rainfall runoff variation under the influence of climate was 2.48 billion m^(3),and the contribution rates of temperature and precipitation to the increase of rainfall runoff were 36.2%and 63.8%,respectively.The snowmelt runoff variation under the influence of climate was-310 million m^(3),and the contribution rates of temperature and precipitation to the decrease of snowmelt runoff were 348.1%and-248.1%,respectively.The glacier melt runoff variation under the influence of climate was-30 million m^(3),and the contribution rates of temperature and precipitation to the decrease of glacier melt runoff were-21.5%and 121.5%,respectively.The monthly process of runoff and its components was analyzed,and the impact of climate change on runoff and its components was mainly concentrated from June to October.

关 键 词：径流组分 WEP-QTP模型 径流演变 长江源区 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]