基于天气预报的湖北漳河灌区水稻灌溉需水预测  

Forecast on irrigation water demand in Zhanghe Irrigation District,Hubei Province based on weather forecast

作　　者：王倩[1] 熊玉江 王玲 姚付启[1] WANG Qian;XIONG Yujiang;WANG Ling;YAO Fuqi(College of Hydraulic Engineering,Ludong University,Yantai 264010,China;Agricultural Water Conservancy Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Yunyang District Baoxia Water Conservancy Management Station,Shiyan 442517,China)

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学水利工程学院,山东烟台264010 [2]长江科学院农业水利研究所,湖北武汉430010 [3]十堰市郧阳区鲍峡水利管理站,湖北十堰442517

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第12期128-134,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-水利部-中国长江三峡集团有限公司长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2040213);江西省“科技+水利”联合计划项目(2022KSG01005)。

摘　　要：为应对气候变化条件下长江流域农业干旱事件,提高流域灌区防灾减灾韧性,以Blaney-Criddle(BC)公式和水量平衡方程为基础,建立了一种基于公共气象预报的灌区水稻灌溉需水量预报方法,并在湖北省漳河灌区进行应用验证。结果表明:预见期7 d的公共天气预报最低和最高气温准确率均达到70%以上,R均超过0.95;改进的BC模型7 d预见期内参考作物腾发量(ET_(0))预报的RMSE、MAE、R平均值分别为0.91 mm/d、0.84 mm/d、0.83,预测精度整体水平较高;灌溉需水预报方法能够较好复盘漳河灌区2022年典型干旱事件。提出的灌溉需水预报方法能够胜任灌区短期灌溉需水预报精度要求,可为灌区应对干旱提供决策支持。To cope with agricultural drought events in the Changjiang River Basin under climate change conditions and improve the ductility of basin irrigation districts for disaster prevention and mitigation,a public weather forecast-based irrigation water demand forecasting method was developed,which was based on the Blaney-Criddle(BC)equation and the water balance equation,and was validated in the Zhanghe Irrigation District in Hubei Province.The results showed that the accuracy of public weather forecasting minimum and maximum temperatures within the forecast period of 7 d reached more than 70%,as well as R all exceeded 0.95.Besides,the average RMSE and MAE,R of the ET_(0) forecasts during the 7 d forecasting period of the improved BC model were 0.91 mm/d,0.84 mm/d,and 0.83,respectively,with an overall high level of forecasting accuracy.The irrigation water demand forecasting method can better replicate the typical drought events in Zhanghe Irrigation District in 2022.Therefore,the irrigation water demand forecasting method proposed in this paper is able to meet the requirements of short-term irrigation water demand forecasting accuracy in irrigation areas,and can provide decision support for irrigation areas to cope with drought.

关 键 词：灌溉预报 天气预报 灌溉需水量 参考作物腾发量 灌溉制度 BC公式 漳河灌区 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程]