“双碳”目标下江西高比例新能源发展的困境及破解策略  

A Strategy to Solve the Dilemma of High-Proportion New Energy in Jiangxi Province Under the Dual-Carbon Target

作　　者：袁杰辉 唐小明[1,2] 彭天铎 YUAN Jiehui;TANG Xiaoming;PENG Tianduo(Center for Western Jiangxi Regional Economic and Social Development,Environment and Carbon Neutrality,Yichun University,Yichun 336000,Jiangxi,China;Institute of Energy&Resource,Environment and Carbon Neutrality,Yichun University,Yichun 336000,Jiangxi,China;Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]宜春学院赣西区域经济社会发展研究中心,江西宜春336000 [2]宜春学院能源资源环境与碳中和研究中心,江西宜春336000 [3]清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2023年第4期1-9,22,共10页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金项目“碳中和目标下江西能源转型路径研究”(21GL53);江西省“双千计划”项目(3350200018);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJCZH220)。

摘　　要：为实现“双碳”目标,各个省份亟需发展高比例新能源、建设新型能源体系。通过建立碳中和目标下省域高比例新能源发展路径探索的统一分析框架,梳理分析省域新能源发展的现状及建设高比例新能源面临的困境,探索挖掘破解策略与路径,并以江西省为例,进行示范应用。结果发现,近些年江西新能源发展取得了一定成绩,但是面向高比例新能源建设目标江西新能源发展面临一些困境,包括新能源资源禀赋差开发建设难度增大、新能源项目土地资源受限、屋顶资源渗透率低、电力系统调度复杂性增加、公众缺乏认知等。基于研究结果从综合制定新能源开发序列、深挖土地资源潜力、多措并举提高屋顶资源渗透率、多路径增强电力系统韧性和多管齐下提高公众认知等方面提出破解策略,促进江西高比例新能源发展、新型能源体系建设。The development of the high-proportion new energy and the construction of a new energy system in each province will play a crucial role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.A unified analysis framework was established for the exploration of the development path of high-proportion new energy in provinces under the carbon neutral target.After analyzing the development status of new energy and investigating the dilemma of the development of high-proportion new energy in provinces under the carbon neutral target,the solution path for solving the dilemma was determined and Jiangxi province was taken as an example for the demonstration application.Based on the investigation of the characteristics of energy and carbon emissions and the current situation of new energy development in Jiangxi in the new era,this paper identified the difficulties of developing high-proportion new energy in Jiangxi under the goal of carbon neutrality,including the increasing difficulty of development and construction of new energy resources due to poor endowment,limited land resources,low permeability of roof resources.In this paper,strategies are proposed from the perspective of formulating an integrated development sequence for new energy,exploring land resource potential deeply,and taking multiple measures to improve the penetration rate of roof resources,for promoting the successful realization of the goal of developing high-proportion new energy in Jiangxi,and for building a new energy system with a high proportion of new energy,aiming to achieve carbon neutrality in Jiangxi.

关 键 词：碳中和目标 新型能源系统 高比例新能源 渗透率 江西 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]