中国居民直接碳排放影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Influencing Direct Carbon Emissions of Chinese Residents

作　　者：高雨雯 王安妮 贝雷 杨武[2] 卢腾飞 许霁 王艺程 王贲[2] 刘海涛 孙路石[2] GAO Yuwen;WANG Anni;BEI Lei;YANG Wu;LU Tengfei;XU Ji;WANG Yicheng;WANG Ben;LIU Haitao;SUN Lushi(China-EU Institute for Clean and Renewable Energy,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;State Key Laboratory of Coal Combustion,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Wuhan Energy Conservation Monitoring Center,Wuhan 430010,China;Guangxi Huayu Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanning 530000,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学中欧清洁与可再生能源学院,武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学煤燃烧与低碳利用全国重点实验室,武汉430074 [3]武汉市节能监察中心,武汉430010 [4]广西华喻能源科技有限公司,南宁540000

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2023年第4期40-45,51,共7页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：广西科技发展战略研究专项(桂科ZL22064025)。

摘　　要：为探明居民家庭能源直接碳排放的影响因素和空间特性,采用莫兰指数(Moran's I)分析居民家庭直接碳排放的空间相关性,建立地理加权回归(GWR)模型并对居民直接碳排放影响因素进行分析。结果表明:居民直接碳排放在河北、山东、内蒙古、江苏等北部沿海及东部沿海省份为高-高聚集,在新疆、西藏、青海等西北省份为低-低聚集。城镇化率对居民直接碳排放的影响作用最大,回归系数位于0.80~0.97之间。城镇化率、家庭规模和居民节能政策认知会促进居民直接碳排放,人均住宅面积和居民用能行为对居民直接碳排放的影响程度在不同省份间表现出较大差异。总体而言,中国居民直接碳排放具有空间上的异质性,居民端碳减排需因地制宜。To investigate the influencing factors and spatial characteristics of direct carbon emissions from residential energy use,Moran's I was used to analyze the spatial correlation of direct carbon emissions from residential households.Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model was established to analyze the influencing factors of direct carbon emissions from residents.The results showed that direct carbon emissions from residential households were high-highly aggregated in northern coastal and eastern coastal provinces such as Hebei,Shandong,Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu,while they were low-lowly aggregated in northwestern provinces such as Xinjiang,Tibet and Qinghai.The urbanization rate had the largest impact on direct carbon emissions from residential households,with a regression coefficient ranging from 0.80 to 0.97,indicating that areas with higher urbanization rates tended to emit more carbon.In addition,household size and residents'awareness of energy-saving policies also had positive effects on direct carbon emissions.The impact of per capita residential area and energy consumption behavior on direct carbon emissions varied significantly among different provinces.In general,direct carbon emissions from Chinese residents exhibit spatial heterogeneity,and efforts to reduce carbon emissions from households should be tailored to local conditions.

关 键 词：居民 直接碳排放 影响因素分析 莫兰指数 地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：TK011[动力工程及工程热物理] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]