江西省县域级城市碳达峰路径分析  

Analysis of Carbon Peaking Paths in County Level Cities in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：张贵香 才瀚涛 吴晓方 孙李媛[2] 顾倩倩 谢运生[2] ZHANG Guixiang;CAI Hantao;WU Xiaofang;SUN Liyuan;GU Qianqian;XIE Yunsheng(Jiangxi Carbon Neutrality Research Center,Nanchang 330096,China;Energy Research Institute of Jiangxi Academy of Sciences,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiaxing High Quality Development Planning&Research Limited,Jiaxing 314000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省碳中和研究中心,南昌330096 [2]江西省科学院能源研究所,南昌330096 [3]嘉兴市高质量发展规划研究有限公司,浙江嘉兴314000

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2023年第4期52-57,105,共7页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：江西省重点研发计划重点项目(20212BBG71015);江西省社会科学“十四五”(2023年)基金项目(23GL22);江西省科学院院包干制试点示范项目重点研发计划项目江西省钢铁行业碳排放达峰预测研究(2021YSBG21023);江西省管理科学项目“更高标准打造美丽中国‘江西样板’的调查研究”(20222BAA10W08)。

摘　　要：为了助力县域级城市顺利推进碳达峰工作,以江西省能源为输出型的某县为案例,通过分析其能源发展、消耗、碳排放现状和基于LEAP模型构建碳达峰基准、达峰、低碳情景来研究县域碳达峰实施路径。结果显示,可再生资源丰富的县域,在基准情景下不采取政策干预不能如期达峰,在达峰情景下可在2030年达峰,达峰的重点在工业、服务业等3个重点部门和电力、柴油等2种能源品种,这需要在全县通过发展以消纳可再生能源为主的智能微电网、实施“新能源+储能”、招引用电大项目等提高绿色电力消纳能力,优先发展生物能源替代化石燃料项目、可再生能源产业链等绿色低碳产业及倡导绿色低碳生活习惯等达峰路径。基于县域实际提出符合特色的碳达峰实施路径,能为县域级城市顺利完成“双碳”目标提供参考。In order to assist county-level cities in smoothly promoting carbon peaking work,this article takes a county in Jiangxi province,which is an energy output type,as a case study.By analyzing its energy development,consumption,and carbon emissions status,and based on the long range energy alternatives planning(LEAP)model,constructing carbon peaking benchmarks,peaking,and low-carbon scenarios,the implementation path of county-level carbon peaking is studied.The results show that counties with abundant renewable resources cannot reach their peak on schedule without policy intervention under the baseline scenario.In the peak scenario,it can reach its peak by 2030,with a focus on three key sectors including industry and service industry,as well as two types of energy sources including electricity and diesel.This requires the development of intelligent microgrids that mainly consume renewable energy and the implementation of"new energy+energy storage"throughout the county Attracting and referencing projects such as the National Radio and Television University to enhance the capacity for green electricity consumption,prioritizing the development of green and low-carbon industries such as bioenergy substitution for fossil fuel projects,renewable energy industry chains,and advocating for green and low-carbon lifestyle habits to reach peak paths.Based on the actual situation in the county,a carbon peak implementation path that conforms to the characteristics is proposed,which can provide reference for county-level cities to successfully achieve the"dual carbon"goals.

关 键 词：碳达峰 县域 能源输出 LEAP模型 江西省 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]