中国农产品期货市场交割制度有效性测度  

Research on the Effectiveness of Delivery System in China's Agricultural Futures Market

作　　者：伍伶俐 鞠荣华[2] WU Ling-li;JU Rong-hua(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Center for Futures and Financial Derivatives Research,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京市100083 [2]中国农业大学中国期货与金融衍生品研究中心,北京市100083

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2023年第12期79-89,共11页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国农产品期货套期保值效果评价及优化研究”(21BJY211)。

摘　　要：随着我国农业市场化改革的深入推进,农产品期货市场成为解决“三农”问题的重要工具。期货交割是连接期货市场和现货市场的纽带,也是期货市场功能有效发挥的基础,全面系统评价我国农产品期货市场交割制度有效性尤为重要。用交割便利度指代交割制度有效性,通过梳理期货市场交割便利度理论逻辑,选取资金成本、交割库设置、期货合约设计3个一级指标15个二级指标,构建我国农产品期货市场交割便利度评价指标体系,并运用逐层组合赋权法确定交割便利度各级指标的权重,测度2015—2021年我国农产品期货市场交割便利度水平。结果显示,自2015年以来,我国农产品期货市场交割便利度总体处于逐步提升状态,其中交割库设置指标的贡献率最大;各农产品期货交割便利度水平差异较大;从农产品属性、进口依赖度和期货交易所三个维度看,我国加工农产品、进口依赖度低以及在大连商品交易所和上海期货交易所上市的期货交割便利度水平更高。基于此,期货交易所应适当降低期货交割成本和交易成本,优化交割库设置,放松与交割有关的制度约束,以提高我国农产品期货市场交割便利度,充分发挥期货市场经济功能,实现建设农业强国的战略目标。As China's agricultural market-oriented reform progresses,the agricultural product futures market has emerged as a crucial tool in addressing the issues related to"agriculture,farmers,and rural areas".Futures delivery acts as a bridge between futures and spot markets,serving as the foundation for the effective operation of the futures market.It is particularly important to fully and systematically understand the current status of the effectiveness of the delivery system in China's agricultural product futures market.The term"delivery convenience"is used to denote the effectiveness of the delivery system,the theoretical logic of delivery convenience in the futures market is elucidated,and three primary indicators(i.e.,capital cost,delivery warehouse setup,and futures contract design)and fifteen secondary indicators are chosen by the authors to establish a comprehensive evaluation system for the delivery convenience of China's agricultural product futures market.Then,the layered combination weighting method is employed by the authors to determine the weights of each level of indicators,and measure the level of delivery convenience in China's agricultural product futures market from 2015 to 2021.The results demonstrate that:since 2015,the overall delivery convenience in China's agricultural product futures market has been steadily increasing,with the delivery warehouse setup indicator contributing the most;there are considerable variations in the levels of delivery convenience for different agricultural product futures;and from the heterogeneous perspectives of agricultural product attributes,import dependence,and futures exchanges,China's processed agricultural products,those with low import dependence,and futures listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange show higher levels of delivery convenience.In light of this,futures exchanges should consider appropriately lowering both futures delivery costs and transaction costs,optimizing delivery warehouse setups,and easing regulatory constraint

关 键 词：农产品期货市场 交割制度 交割便利度 制度有效性 

分 类 号：F724.5[经济管理—产业经济]