四级公路货车路侧事故概率预测与多发点判别方法研究  

Probability Prediction and Black-Spots Identification of Freight Vehicles Roadside Accidents on Class IV Highway

作　　者：张丽莉[1] 靳钢睿 程国柱 徐亮[3] ZHANG Lili;JIN Gangrui;CHENG Guozhu;XU Liang(School of Traffic and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;Beijing Automotive Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 101300,China;School of Civil Engineering,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]北京汽车研究总院有限公司,北京101300 [3]长春工程学院土木学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2023年第6期7-13,共7页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：黑龙江省重点研发计划(JD22A014);吉林省自然科学基金(YDZJ202101ZYTS184)。

摘　　要：为探究四级公路货车路侧事故的发生规律,减少路侧事故的发生,使用PC-Crash软件对6个路侧事故风险要素进行仿真试验;采用二元Logistic回归分析法,识别路侧事故显著性风险要素,提出四级公路货车路侧事故概率预测模型;在概率预测模型的基础上,使用累计频率曲线法,得到货车路侧事故潜在多发点概率阈值,提出了四级公路货车路侧事故多发点判别方法。研究结果显示:圆曲线半径对四级公路货车路侧事故的重要程度最大;3种四级公路的货车路侧事故潜在多发点概率阈值分别为85%、89%和88%。研究结果可为公路交通管理部门对公路货车路侧事故的预测和预防提供指导。In order to explore the occurrence law of roadside accidents of freight vehicles on class IV highway and reduce the occurrence of roadside accidents,PC-crash software is used to carry out simulation tests on 6 roadside accident risk factors.The binary logistic regression analysis method is used to identify the significant risk factors of the roadside accidents,and a roadside accident probability prediction model of freight vehicles on class IV highway is proposed.On the basis of the probability prediction model,the cumulative frequency curve method is used to obtain the probability thresholds of the potential roadside accident black-spots of the freight vehicles,and the discriminant method for the roadside accident black-spots of class IV highway are proposed.The research results show that the radius of circular curve is the most important to the roadside accidents of the freight vehicles on class IV highway.The probability thresholds of the potential roadside accident black-spots of the freight vehicles on three class IV highways are 85%,89%and 88%respectively.The research of this study can provide guidance for highway traffic management departments to predict and prevent roadside accidents of the freight vehicles on highway and improve freight safety.

关 键 词：交通工程 概率预测 回归分析 路侧事故 事故多发点 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]