基于大数据与机车画像的货运铁路调度运行风险预警方法研究  

Risk Warning Method of Freight Railway Dispatching Operation Based on Big Data and Locomotive Portrait

作　　者：常建和 姚志远 付上源 CHANG Jianhe;YAO Zhiyuan;FU Shangyuan(Baoshen Railway Group Co.,Ltd.,Locomotive Branch,Shenmu 71930,China;Anhui Anwei Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]包神铁路集团机务分公司,陕西神木719300 [2]安徽安为科技有限公司,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2023年第6期14-18,32,共6页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

摘　　要：风险预警能够保证货运铁路调度运行的安全性,为了提高风险预警的性能,提出了基于大数据与机车画像的货运铁路调度运行风险预警方法。首先,利用货运机车标签与机车画像的关系,获取货运铁路调度运行的风险数据标签,结合大数据技术挖掘货运铁路调度运行风险数据,通过计算每类风险数据的聚类中心,聚类处理铁路调度运行的风险。其次,利用大数据技术去除风险数据的冗余特征,挖掘货运铁路调度运行风险的特征,结合归一化处理,检测货运铁路调度运行风险。最后,利用泊松分布定义了铁路调度运行风险的概率函数,基于运行风险的统计情况,构建货运铁路调度运行风险预警模型。试验结果表明,所提出的方法能够将货运铁路调度运行风险预警的虚报率和误报率控制在5%和8%以内,低于对比方法,风险预警效果较好。In order to improve the performance of risk early warning,a freight railway dispatching operation risk early warning method is proposed based on big data and locomotive portrait.The relationship between freight locomotive label and locomotive portrait is used to obtain the risk data label of freight railway dispatching operation,combined with big data technology to mine the risk data of freight railway dispatching operation,and the risk of railway dispatching operation is clustered by calculating each type of risk data of the clustering center.The big data technology is also used to remove the redundant features of the risk data,mine out the characteristics of freight railway dispatching operation risk,and combine normalization processing to detect freight railway dispatching operation risk.Poisson distribution is used to define the probability function of the railway dispatching operation risk.Based on the statistics of the operation risk,a freight railway dispatching operation risk early warning model is built.The experiment results show that the method can control the false alarm rate and false alarm rate of freight railway dispatching operation risk early warning within 5%and 8%respectively,which are lower than the false alarm rate and false alarm rate of the comparison method,and the risk early warning effect is better.

关 键 词：风险预警 机车画像 调度运行 大数据 货运铁路 风险检测 

分 类 号：U294.12[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]