Foley导尿管水囊引产效果的预测模型建立  

The prediction model contruction of application of Foley catheter in labor induction

作　　者：王佳 陈璐 曹羽 WANG Jia;CHEN Lu;CAO Yu(Department of Obstetrics,Changshu NO.1 People’s Hospital,Suzhou 215500,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州大学附属常熟医院妇产科,苏州215500

出　　处：《中国临床医学》2023年第6期1037-1041,共5页Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine

基　　金：苏州市科技发展计划项目(SKY2022074).

摘　　要：目的探讨Foley导尿管水囊对妊娠晚期孕妇引产效果的影响因素,并建立风险预测模型。方法选择2019年1月1日至2021年12月31日在苏州大学附属常熟医院采用Foley导尿管水囊进行引产的单胎产妇1149例,通过放置Foley导管后48 h内阴道分娩率评估引产效果。采用logistic回归分析评估影响引产效果的因素,应用列线图建立预测模型。结果妊娠晚期产妇引产成功率为83.55%(960/1149)。单因素logistic回归分析发现,身高、孕次、产次增加为引产成功的保护因素(P<0.01),年龄、体质量、产时BMI、宫高、腹围增加及妊娠期高血压疾病为引产成功的风险因素(P<0.05)。将年龄、身高、BMI和产次纳入多因素逐步logistic回归方程,构建列线图,列线图偏倚校正C指数为0.748(95%CI0.716~0.788)。结论基于年龄、身高、BMI和产次构建的模型可作为Foley导尿管水囊引产效果的评估手段。Objective To explore the influencing effect of Foley catheter in the third trimester and to establish a risk prediction model.Methods 1149 single-pregnancy woman underwent labor induction with Foley catheter in Changshu NO.1 People’s Hospital from January 1,2019 to December 31,2021 were selected.The effect of labor induction was evaluated by the rate of vaginal delivery within 48 hours after placement of the Foley catheter.The logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate influence factor of labor induction effect and a nomogram model was established.Results The success rate of labor induction was 83.55%(960/1149).Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that increased height,pregnancy times,parity were protective factors for successful induction of labor(P<0.01),and age,weight,BMI,uterine height,abdominal circumference increasing,and hypertension were risk factors for the outcome of induction of labor(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,height,BMI and parity were independent related factors for labor induction success by Foley catheterization.A nomogram model based on age,weight,BMI and parity was constructed,with a bias corrected C-index of 0.748(95%CI 0.716-0.788).Conclusion The nomogram model based on age,height,BMI and parity can be used to evaluate the effect of Foley catheter for labor induction.

关 键 词：引产 FOLEY导尿管 列线图模型 预测 

分 类 号：R719.33[医药卫生—妇产科学]