未来不同气候情景下全球草地生态系统及净初级生产力时空动态分析  

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Global Grassland and Net Primary Productivity under Different Future Climate Scenarios

作　　者：范蒙恩 王佩尧 陈宇[1] 刘欢欢 刘悦 陈印 刚成诚[2,3] 马扶林 FAN Meng-en;WANG Pei-yao;CHEN Yu;LIU Huan-huan;LIU Yue;CHEN Yin;GANG Cheng-cheng;MA Fu-lin(College of Grassland Agriculture,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Haibei Livestock Experiments Weather Station,Haibei,Qinghai 810200,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学草业与草原学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [3]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [4]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海海北810200

出　　处：《草地学报》2023年第12期3597-3607,共11页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31602004);青海省防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(QFZ-2021-Z06);陕西省自然科学基金(2021 JQ-171)资助。

摘　　要：为揭示未来气候变化对草地生态系统的影响及其响应,本研究基于4种未来气候情景(包括SSP126,SSP245,SSP370和SSP585)数据,利用改进的综合顺序分类法和分段模型评估了2020—2100年全球草地生态系统及其净初级生产力(Net primary productivity,NPP)的时空格局及动态演变趋势。结果表明,在4个气候情景中,全球年均温和年降水量均将呈现整体上升的趋势。在SSP126和SSP245情景中,全球草地面积将下降,预计到2090 s将分别下降194.10和178.43万km^(2),主要原因在于冻原与高山草地面积的减少。相比之下,在SSP370和SSP585情景中,全球草地面积将呈现上升的趋势,预计到2090 s将分别上升67.59和136.72万km^(2),热带萨王纳面积增加最多。全球草地NPP在SSP126,SSP245,SSP370和SSP585情景中均将呈现上升趋势,预计到2090将分别上升0.25,1.96,5.78和7.52 Pg DW,其中,热带萨王纳NPP的贡献最大。在全球暖湿化背景下,冻原与高山草地和热带萨王纳更易受气候变化的影响。In order to reveal the impacts of future climate change on grassland ecosystems and their responses,this study assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of global grassland ecosystems and their net primary productivity(NPP)in 2020-2100 based on four future climate scenarios(including SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585)using an improved comprehensive sequential classification system(CSCS)and a segmentation model.Results showed that the global mean annual temperature(MAT)and mean annual precipitation(MAP)would exhibit an overall upward trend in all four climate scenarios.In the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios,the global grassland area was expected to decrease by 1.94 million km^(2) and 1.78 million km^(2) by 2090 s,respectively,mainly due to the reduction of tundra and alpine steppe.In contrast,the global grassland area was expected to increase by 0.68 and 1.37 million km^(2) by 2090 s in the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively,which was mainly caused by the increase in the area of the tropical savanna.Global grassland NPP showed an increasing trend in SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 scenarios,expecting to increase by 0.25,1.96,5.78,and 7.52 Pg DW by 2090 s,respectively.Tropical savanna would contribute the most.In the context of global warming and humidification,tropical savanna and tundra and alpine steppe grasslands would be more vulnerable to future climate change.

关 键 词：草地生态系统 综合顺序分类法(CSCS) 分段模型 净初级生产力(NPP) 未来气候情景 

分 类 号：S153[农业科学—土壤学]