不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡影响及趋利降风险效应研究  

Effect of Urban Temperature in Different Climate Zones on Mortality from Respiratory Diseases and the Risk Reduction in the Elderly

作　　者：陆美静 尹立[2] 孙羽[3] 王式功 胥春云 樊晋 瞿冲 邓徐慧 LU Meijing;YIN Li;SUN Yu;WANG Shigong;XU Chunyun;FAN Jin;QU Chong;DENG Xuhui(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology/Institute of Environmental Meteorology and Health,Chengdu 610225,China;Panzhihua Central Hospital for Meteorological Medicine Research Center,Panzhihua 617000,China;Hainan Second People’s Hospital for Climate Medicine Clinical Research Center,Wuzhishan 572299,China;Yuanjiang County Health Bureau of Yunnan Province,Yuanjiang 653300,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院,四川成都610225 [2]攀枝花市中心医院气象医学研究中心,四川攀枝花617000 [3]海南省第二人民医院气候医学临床研究中心,海南五指山572299 [4]元江县卫健局,云南元江653300

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2023年第6期50-59,共10页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：2021年省级科技计划转移支付专项资金项目(21ZYZF-S-01);攀枝花市科学技术局创新中心建设项目(2021ZX-5-1);四川省区域创新合作项目(2022YFQ0001);中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD-202203);2021年度第二批攀枝花市市级科技计划项目(2021CY-S-4)。

摘　　要：基于元江、成都与西安3个不同气候带城市的逐日疾病死亡数据与同期气象数据,采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型探究了这3座不同气候带城市气温对老年呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的影响,使用归因分值(AFs)量化不同气温段对呼吸系统疾病所造成的健康损失,并定量评估三地之间季节性气候趋利可获得的死亡风险降低效应。结果表明:(1)元江、成都与西安地区气温与老年呼吸系统疾病死亡关系大致呈“W”、反“J”、反“J”型分布。(2)气温对元江老年人群呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响以高温即时性更为突出,成都、西安老年人群则以低温滞后性更为显著。(3)元江、成都与西安由气温造成的AFs分别为9.64%、11.25%和18.26%,其中冷效应对呼吸系统疾病产生的死亡风险更大。将气温进一步细分为4个气温段(极端低温、中等低温、中等高温和极端高温),中等低温造成的超额死亡累计人数最多,这与其发生频次多密切相关。(4)若元江、成都、西安有意愿有条件的老年人群采取候鸟式季节性气候趋利避暑或避寒康养,可在一定程度上降低由当地季节性不适气候所产生的健康风险。Based on the day-by-day mortality data and concurrent meteorological data from Yuanjiang,Chengdu,and Xi’an city,the effects of temperature on the risk of death from respiratory diseases in the elderly in three cities with different climatic zones were investigated by using generalized additive and distributional lagged nonlinear models,and then the health losses caused by respiratory diseases were quantified using attributable fractions(AFs)in the different temperature bands,and the effect of seasonal climate convergence among the three places was quantified.The mortality risk reduction effect was obtained from the seasonal climate convergence among the three cities.The results suggested that:(1)The relationship between temperature and deaths from respiratory diseases in the Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi’an cities showed a“W”,inverse“J”and inverse“J”distribution,respectively.(2)The effect of temperature on deaths from respiratory diseases in the elderly in Yuanjiang was more prominent with high temperature immediacy,and for the elderly in Chengdu and Xi’an city,it was more pronounced with the laged low temperature.(3)The AFs caused by temperature in Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi’an were 9.64%,11.25%and 18.26%,respectively,with the cold effect generating a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases.Further subdividing the temperatures into four temperature bands(extreme low temperature,moderate low temperature,moderate high temperature,and extreme high temperature),moderate low temperature caused the highest cumulative number of excess deaths,which was closely related to its high frequency of occurrence.(4)If the elderly in Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi’an city have the willingness and conditions to take migratory birds seasonal climate tendency to avoid the summer heat or cold recreation,it might reduce the health risks arising from the local seasonal discomfort climate to a certain extent.

关 键 词：气温 呼吸系统疾病 死亡风险 归因风险 超额死亡风险 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]