基于地震目录模拟的牵引供电系统地震灾害风险评估  

Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment of Traction Power Supply System Based on Seismic Catalogue Simulation

作　　者：张强 林圣[1] 孙小军[1] 冯玎 ZHANG Qiang;LIN Sheng;SUN Xiaojun;FENG Ding(School of Electrical Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《铁道学报》2023年第12期74-82,共9页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51907166);四川省科技计划(2022JDJQ0001)。

摘　　要：提出一种基于地震目录模拟分析场地地震危险性,评估牵引供电系统地震灾害风险的方法。基于地震活动性概率模型,采用蒙特卡洛抽样实现地震目录模拟;通过地震动衰减关系计算地震动强度,获得地震动强度序列,并以此表征场地地震危险性;在此基础上,综合地震动强度和各损失等级易损性曲线进行牵引所和接触网的地震损失量化;最后考虑风险决策实际需求,针对高影响地震事件进行风险指标计算,绘制风险区划图。结果表明:通过地震目录模拟获得的地震动强度序列可较为全面地表达场地地震危险性,提高评估准确度。提出的各项指标能有效描述牵引供电系统的地震灾害风险,风险区划图能有效表征牵引供电系统地震灾害风险的区域分布情况。评估结果可为牵引供电系统抗震设计、选址提供参考。In this paper,a method based on seismic catalogue simulation was proposed to analyze site seismic hazard and evaluate the seismic hazard of the traction power supply system.Firstly,with the use of Monte Carlo sampling to simulate earthquake catalogue based on seismic activity probability model,the ground motion intensity was calculated by the attenuation relation of ground motion.Then,the ground motion intensity sequence was obtained,which was used to characterize the seismic hazard of the site.On this basis,the earthquake loss of the traction station and catenary was quantified by integrating the ground motion intensity and the vulnerability curves of each loss grade.Finally,considering the actual needs of risk decision-making,risk indicator calculation and risk zonation map were conducted for high impact seismic events.The results show that the ground motion intensity sequence obtained by seismic catalogue simulation can comprehensively express the site seismic risk and improve the accuracy of seismic assessment.The proposed indicators can effectively describe the seismic disaster risk of the traction power supply system,and the risk zonation map can effectively represent the regional distribution of the seismic disaster risk of the traction power supply system.The evaluation results can provide reference for the seismic design and site selection of the traction power supply systems.

关 键 词：牵引供电系统 风险评估 地震模拟 抗震设防 

分 类 号：U223.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]