预期的作用和对反垄断政策的启示  

Role of Expectations and Its Implications for Antitrust Policies

作　　者：吴汉洪[1] 王成 WU Han-hong;WANG Cheng(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2023年第12期31-40,共10页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

摘　　要：预期是指经济当事人对与其决策相关的经济变量的未来变动值所作的估计或判断。在经济学中,预期主要包括适应性预期和理性预期,其不仅影响个人和企业的行为,也影响政府决策的结果。在宏观经济学领域已有大量关于预期的研究,但在反垄断政策领域,预期还未受到广泛重视。本文借鉴预期在宏观经济学中的研究成果,提出了预期的作用及其对反垄断政策的若干启示:第一,反垄断政策是政府与经营主体之间的博弈,在理性预期下,政府存在背弃诺言的激励,因而最优控制理论并不适用于经济计划。第二,政府在制定政策时面临是遵守规则还是相机抉择的取舍,两种选择分别体现出原则性和灵活性,政府应在两者之间寻求平衡。第三,政府的政策信誉对反垄断政策的执行效果至关重要,时间不一致的政府政策将会损害其信誉,建立政府的政策信誉比政策本身更为重要。第四,预期管理对反垄断政策是重要的,西方国家的预期管理在提高宏观经济政策效率方面取得了一定成效。笔者认为,与宏观经济学重视对预期的研究相一致,对预期的研究或将成为反垄断政策领域至关重要的一环,充分理解、研究和有效运用预期,对于政府实现既定经济目标、维护市场公平竞争、提高市场活力和推动经济发展具有重要意义。Antitrust policy has long been regarded as a crucial strategy for maintaining market competition in China.However,the antitrust reles implemented in China over the years have largely focused on mechanized enforcement,paying less attention to the role of expectations.This has resulted in difficulties in achieving the intended goals of government⁃issued rules.Expectations have received widespread attention and in⁃depth research in the field of macroeconomics,with systematic research methodologies and theoretical frameworks.However,the role of expectations in antitrust policy has yet to be sufficiently explored and applied.In light of this,this paper examines the meaning,categories,and role of expectations,and presents four insights on the role of expectations in macroeconomic policies.This offers a new perspective for the study of antitrust policy.Firstly,in the framework of rational expectations,there exist incentives for the government to break promises or tamper with previously announced policies.Therefore,optimal control theory,although proven highly useful in the natural sciences,can not be applied to economic planning,and the game theory serves as the fundamental tool in macroeconomic policy theory.Secondly,acting according to rules reflects principles,while exercising discretion reflects flexibility.Antitrust policy involves a balance between leniency and severity,reflecting the relation between vitality and order.Law enforcement agencies should strive to seek a delicate balance between market vitality and market order while influencing the expectations and behavior of market participants through the transmission of information.Thirdly,the government’s policy credibility is crucial for antitrust policy.Time inconsistency in government policies will undermine the credibility of policy enforcement.If the government can change its policies,the rules themselves will become time⁃inconsistent.Therefore,establishing credibility in rules is more important than the specific rules themselves.Fourthly,expectati

关 键 词：预期 适应性预期 理性预期 反垄断政策 

分 类 号：F038.2[经济管理—政治经济学]