基于海洋溢油溯源数值模拟方法的长岛保护区污染风险分析  

Pollution risk analysis of Changdao Nature Reserve based on the marine oil spill backtracking method

作　　者：陈勤思 胡松[1,2] 魏永亮[2] CHEN Qinsi;HU Song;WEI Yongiang(Marine Ecosystem&Environmental Laboratory,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Marine Science,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋生态系统与环境实验室,上海201306 [2]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋通报》2023年第6期707-714,共8页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划子课题(2021YFC3101702)。

摘　　要：渤海海域油气开发和输运活动频繁,溢油风险源较多,无主漂油事件时有发生。本文采用海洋溢油溯源数值模拟方法对山东长岛国家级自然保护区(即长岛保护区)进行了污染风险分析。利用非结构有限体积法海洋模式(Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model,FVCOM)模拟了渤海海域的潮流,结合欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5风场资料,通过一次真实溢油事故的后报验证方法的有效性。将该方法应用在长岛保护区的溯源模拟中,评估月平均统计条件下保护区整体污染危害风险。研究表明,溯源数值模拟方法可以提供对保护区造成危害的溢油来源区域及溢油对保护区造成污染影响的概率等信息,可为保护区相关工作提供参考。Oil and gas development and transport activities are frequent in the Bohai Sea area,and there are many oil spill risk sources,and mystery spills occur from time to time.This study analyzes the risk of oil spill pollution in Changdao National Nature Reserve by using the backtracking method.The FVCOM is used to simulate the tidal current in the Bohai Sea.Combined with ECMWF ERA5 wind data,the effectiveness of backtracking method is calibrated by hindcast of a real oil spill accident.The method is applied to the simulation of Changdao Nature Reserve to evaluate the overall oil spill pollution risks of the study area under the condition of monthly average statistics.The results show that the backtracking method can provide the information of the oil spill source area and the pollution probability,which can provide reference for the related work of the reserve.

关 键 词：海洋溢油 溯源 FVCOM 风险分析 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]