基于扩展STIRPAT模型的湖州市能源碳排放主导因素识别  

Identification of Dominant Factors in Huzhou's Carbon Emissions Based on Extended STIRPAT Model

作　　者：芋耀贤 陈洪银 王松岑 霍永锋 郭毅 金璐 谭将军 邵越 YU Yaoxian;CHEN Hongyin;WANG Songcen;HUO Yongfeng;GUO Yi;JIN Lu;TAN Jiangjun;SHAO Yue(State Key Laboratory of Power Grid Safety,Beijing 100192,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;Huzhou Power Supply Co.,State Grid Zhejiang Electric Co.,Ltd.,Huzhou Zhejiang 313000,China)

机构地区：[1]电网安全全国重点实验室,北京100192 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100192 [3]国网浙江省电力有限公司湖州供电公司,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《农业工程》2023年第9期66-72,共7页AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(1400-202219426A-2-0-ZN)。

摘　　要：基于浙江省湖州市2007—2020年主要能源消费数据,采用排放因子法估算主要能源消费碳排放量,利用扩展STIRPAT模型构建湖州市能源消费碳排放预测模型,并以人口数量、人均GDP、能源结构、单位产值能耗、农业增加值占全市生产总值比例、农业机械总动力及产业结构为因素,分析影响湖州市能源消费碳排放主要原因。结果表明,湖州市能源消费碳排放量总体呈降低−升高−降低变化趋势;碳排放模型拟合程度R2=0.812,F检验显著性<0.01,并且验证发现模型的平均相对误差3.59%,说明该模型能较好地反映湖州市能源消费碳排放的特征;进一步分析发现,影响湖州市碳排放的主导因素为能源消费结构、单位产值能耗、农业增加值占全市生产总值比例、农业机械总动力及产业结构,其中上述主导因素对湖州市能源消费碳排放的影响指数分别为0.24%、−0.16%、−0.32%、−0.62%和−0.45%。Based on main energy consumption data of Huzhou City,Zhejiang Province,from 2007 to 2020,emission factor method was used to estimate carbon emissions of main energy sources,and extended STIRPAT model was used to construct a prediction model for carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huzhou City,and population size,per capita GDP,energy structure,energy consumption per unit of output,proportion of added value of agriculture to city's gross domestic product,total power of agricultural machinery,and industrial structure were used as factors to analyze main reasons affecting carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huzhou City.The main reasons affecting energy consumption carbon emission in Huzhou were analyzed as factors.Results showed that overall energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City showed a lowering-rising-lowering trend;carbon emission model fit R2 was 0.812,the F-test significance was less than 0.01,and verification found that average relative error of model was 3.59%,which indicated that the model could better respond to characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City.Further analysis showed that dominant factors affecting carbon emissions in Huzhou City were energy consumption structure,energy consumption per unit of output value,proportion of added value of agriculture to city's gross domestic product,total power of agricultural machinery and industrial structure,of which influence indexes of above mentioned major factors on carbon emissions from energy consumption in Huzhou City were 0.24%,−0.16%,−0.32%,−0.62%,and−0.45%.

关 键 词：扩展STIRPAT模型 碳排放 能源结构 农业机械总动力 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]