地面沉降风险多向性评估体系建立与全量化应用  

Establishment and full quantitative application of multidirectional assessment system of land subsidence risk

作　　者：代如凤 战庆[1,2,3] DAI Ru-feng;ZHAN Qing(Shanghai Institute of Geological Survey,Shanghai 200072,China;Key Laboratory of Land Subsidence Monitoring and Prevention,Ministry of Natural Resources of China,Shanghai 200072,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Land Subsidence,Shanghai 200072,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市地质调查研究院,上海200072 [2]自然资源部地面沉降监测与防治重点实验室,上海200072 [3]上海地面沉降控制工程技术研究中心,上海200072

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2023年第4期21-25,共5页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：上海市科委科技攻关项目《深层地下空间地质体微变形机理与智能化数字化监测预警关键技术研究》(21DZ1204200)。

摘　　要：地面沉降是世界范围较为普遍的地质灾害,目前已有超过100个国家和地区发生地面沉降。本文基于风险理论建立了适用于缓变性地质灾害地面沉降风险多向性评估体系,涵盖危险性和易损性两项评估内容。在评估指标选取时进行多方面多因素综合考量,将地面沉降发育与城市发展相结合,构建既包括地面沉降相关因素同时涵盖城市规划发展的多向性风险评估指标体系。根据地面沉降孕灾地质条件,选取地面沉降易发程度、发育程度、预测速率和地势高程作为危险性评估因子,根据承灾体遭受地面沉降灾害敏感程度及城市发展规划,选取人口密度、单位面积GDP、建设用地比重和重大线性工程密度等作为易损性评估因子。所建评估方法体系成功应用于上海市地面沉降风险性全量化评估工作中。Land subsidence is a common geological hazard in the world,and it has occurred in more than 100 countries and regions.Based on the risk theory,a multi-directional risk assessment system of land subsidence is established in this paper,which is suitable for slow geological hazards,including hazard and vulnerability assessment.In the selection of assessment indicators,the land subsidence development and urban development are combined to build a multi-directional risk assessment index system,which not only includes the relevant factors of land subsidence,but also covers the urban planning and development.According to the disaster-pregnant geological conditions of land subsidence,susceptibility degree,development degree,prediction rate and terrain elevation of land subsidence are selected as risk assessment factors.Population density,GDP per unit area,the proportion of construction land and the density of major linear projects are selected as vulnerability assessment factors according to the sensitivity of disaster-bearing body to land subsidence disasters and urban development planning.The established assessment method system has been successfully applied to the comprehensive quantitative risk assessment of land subsidence in Shanghai.

关 键 词：地面沉降 多向性评估体系 风险评价 危险性 易损性 评估应用 

分 类 号：P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]