2024年上海经济运行前瞻:外部环境、增长动力及对策建议  

Shanghai Economic Operation Outlook 2024:External Environment, Growth Drivers and Countermeasures

作　　者：马海倩 汪曾涛 徐惠妍 Ma Haiqian;Wang Zengtao;Hu Huiyan

机构地区：[1]上海市发展改革研究院,200031

出　　处：《科学发展》2023年第12期5-16,共12页Scientific Development

摘　　要：2024年中国经济将继续恢复增长,扩内需、提信心、防风险仍将是经济发展的主基调。在经济从“恢复性增长”转向“内生性增长”的重要转换之年,上海要谨慎把握当前经济运行“四期叠加”的底层逻辑,即国际动荡期、疫后恢复期、经济下行期、转型深化期的叠加影响,因势利导、借势发力,充分挖掘全球新变局和我国快速转型过程中的结构性动力和战略机遇,统筹“当期稳增长”和“长期深转型”,为经济高质量可持续发展奠定基础、释放潜力、打开格局。China’s economy will continue to resume growth in 2024,and expanding domestic demand,boosting confidence,and preventing risks will remain the main theme of economic development.In this important transition year when the economy is shifting from“restorative growth”to“endogenous growth”,Shanghai should“cautiously”grasp the underlying logic of the current economic operation,which is characterized by“four periods of overlapping”,i.e.,the overlapping effects of the period of international turbulence,post-epidemic recovery,economic downturn,and deepening of transformation,and take advantage of the situation to make full use of the structural dynamics and strategic opportunities in the process of the new global changes and China’s rapid transformation,and to integrate the“current stable growth”and“long-term deep transformation”,and lay the foundation for high-quality and sustainable economic development,unleash the potential and open up the pattern.

关 键 词：经济形势 边际改善 新增长周期 增长动力 

分 类 号：F127.51[经济管理—世界经济]